Bellevue Real Estate » South Bellevue

Distressed Inventory Report 3-12-11

George Thurtle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 14:23:25 +0000

Another downturn this week in the overall amount of distressed inventory. Generally it should be going up but it looks like a lot of things have worked through the system. Overall the amount of distressed inventory (Bank Owned Homes and Notice of Trustee Sales) is at 307. Down from its near term peak of 317 two weeks ago and down from the long term peak of 422 homes in August of 2010. However while it does appear to be leveling off the amount of the drop is not convincing and the overall numbers could be “basing”. It looks like this could be a case of the “muddles” as looks like they could be a new range of of between 300 to 350 homes but lets see.

The listed inventory is also down for both bank owned and short sale. There does not appear to be new listed inventory coming to the market all except for West Bellevue. In that area there were two new homes. The interesting thing about West Bellevue is that the least expensive bank owned home is $1,549,000 and they top out at almost $5,000,000. This is a switch where before the bank owned inventory was at the lower end. Also in South Bellevue a waterfront came on the market at almost $3,000,000 in Kennydale.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-12-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-7-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 23:09:07 +0000

The sales are taking their usual seasonal upturnb but not the inventories. South Bellevue did finally see its inventories rise by 12 homes. The other areas were flat to down a little. East Bellevue dropped to 159 homes which is a ridiculously low number. The sales however are starting to surge with the usual seasonal regularity. Again South B ellevue was the winner with 14 sold homes and 14 pending sales. This is a pretty brtisk sales rate. The inventory is starting to fet pretty well picked over and the new inventory comes to the market it is gemerally in the lower prioce ranges and in many cases needs some work. I am starting to see some very short sale times for homes that have been brought to the marklet which are well well priced and have been redone inside and out. Many sellers look like they are updating their kitchens and bathrooms in order to obtain a better price. If the home needs repairs the price really gets hammered.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-7-11

Weekly Scorecard 1-10-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 22:52:03 +0000

The sales numbers remained strong but the pending sales took a dip this week all except in South Bellevue where both sold and pending sales seem to keep posting pretty good numbers. The inventories remained steady, I would have expected them to start rising again. Still looking for some market direction after the new year. specifically if the trend towards overall higher sales and reduced inventories will continue.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 1-10-11

Weekly Scorecard 12-13-10

George Thurtle — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 01:51:41 +0000

The sales volumes are pretty high for this time of year except for west Bellevue which had a large number of sales but no pending sales and the pending sales for West Bellevue have been done the last couple of weeks. However the other areas have both a higher volume of sold and pending sales which could mean this market is settling out at a higher overall volume now that the sold homes and pending sales are starting to track a little more.

The inventorues fell like a stone this week. don’t know if that is due to sales or seasonal conditions. Later in the next month we should see inventories start rising but my gut feel is they will peak at a lower level this year than last year. The other notable trend is the amount of highend inventory closing. A waterfront in West Bellevue closed for $9,500,000 and you can see by the South Bellevue average home sale prices that some more expensive inventory was sold.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 12-13-10

Weekly Scorecard 11-22-10

George Thurtle — Sat, 27 Nov 2010 15:43:11 +0000

This week the amount of inventory continues to decline however the pending sales and sold home numbers seem to be diverging some. In East Bellevue there were 11 sold homes and only 4 pending sales. In South Bellevue the same trend 15 sold homes and 7 pending sales. West Bellevue was different with 4 sold homes and 5 pending sales. Given the time of year it is hard to determine if this is seasonal or a developing market trend. However West Bellevue does show some underlying strength. Also there were two sales not included in the West Bellevue numbers this week since they were essentially land sales. One was a waterfront lot on Evergreen Point for over $3,000,000 and a view lot on Clyde Hill with a small tear down for $1,350,000. This again is showing strength in West Bellevue with the purchase of very expensive vacant land parcels to build high end custom homes.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 11-22-10

Distressed Inventory Report 11-6-10

George Thurtle — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 17:27:37 +0000

It is evident there was a back log due to the foreclosure moratorium by the major lenders. However this week the nes is that the banks are steeping up the rate of actual foreclosures. Last week the Notice of Trustee sales (NTS) saw a big spike in their numbers, however this week the it is the foreclosures themselves which are increasing. There is still a number of homes going NTS but nat as many as last week. Also there appears to be a lot od churning with at loeast 3 or 4 homes that were NTS being removed and then being replaced. Basically you need almost 5 or 6 new homes going NTS to offset the market and foreclosure activity. Most of the bank owned propoerties however are of a realtively low grade mainly condos and entry level housing. There are some nice newer ones in the 98005 zip code in the Glendale area and some real expensive ones in West Bellevue but that is about it. Aged short sales seem to be presenting the most opportunity right now. Also if any one has any interest I will be listing a new construction and unfinished home in the Kel;sey Glen area but there is no reason an offer cannot be submitted now.

The swpreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-6-10

Weekly Scorecard 10-18-10

George Thurtle — Tue, 19 Oct 2010 18:54:02 +0000

Finally getting caught up. The volumes are down this week and we will have to wait to see if this is seasonal or if the overall level of demand is declining. The pendings and the solds appear to be coming in line so the true market after the tax credit expiration is starting to resolve. Overall values have appeared to remain steady but volumes are down. The inventories have leveled off and are no longer increasing but this time of year we will usually start to see a decrease but that does not appear to be happening.

The individual sales were interesting with two waterfront homes on Lake Sammamish going pending. That is why average price and per sq. ft. numbers are higher. Also in West Bellevue it appears a couple more tear downs have sold. The tear dwon market appears to be making a solid come back in West Bellevue. Also there appeared to be no distressed inventory sold this week either bank owned or short sale.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 10-18-10

Weekly Scorecard 8-30-10

George Thurtle — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 15:16:41 +0000

Well I seem to keep getting further behind but finally got to the weekly numbers. The schizophrenia continues a high number of closed sales and low numbers of pending sales. West Bellevue was the best example with 11 closed sales and no pending sales. There was one bright spot in West Bellevue a new construction home closed for $3,000,000 that is almost one a week and they is not bank owned. As we discussed earlier there is very little or no new construction inventory over $1,000,000 since prices are well below production cost still. There is however a number of custom homes started since those individuals who would like a new home are finding little or no inventory to select from.

In addition it appears inventories have peaked. They are not dropping but the numbers are not rising. The issue however is that in the next few months with the same amount of inventory and half of the sales than previous months what will happen to pricing. I am starting to see a lot of pricing pressure; particularly for short sales.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 8-30-10

Distressed Inventory Report 8-28-10

George Thurtle — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 17:58:12 +0000

The inventory of distressed homes does appear to be peaking. There is a lot of turn over in the homes with Notice of Trustee Sale with many of those numbers falling; particularly in South Bellevue and East Bellevue. You can most likely read into this that more banks are approving short sales. The only area which appears to be having a continuing increae in inventory is West Bellevue. Both the number of bank owned and NYS homes were up and gradually continue to creep up.

If the distressed inventory is peaking that will be good for the market overall. However now the big concern in the next couple of months is a negative news cycle as Wall Street figures out that it was overly optimistic about the economy and comes to the realization that this cycle is not the traditional recovery cycle they are used to.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 8-28-10

Weekly Scorecard 8-23-10

George Thurtle — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 15:04:57 +0000

The numbers are somewhat interesting. It appears inventories are peaking except for West Bellevue where they continue to climb. The fundamentals of the West Bellevue market look a little weak with rising inventories and very week pending sales in the last four weeks. The closed sales look OK but those pending sales numbers are not good for the amount of the inventory and its average price. The pending sales in East Bellevue and South Bellevue are also down but their inventory numbers do not appear to be rising. The closed sales numbers for South Bellevue were very impressive.

At some point in time the gap between the pending sales and the closed sales needs to narrow in order to see where this market will settle in at.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 8-24-10