Bellevue Real Estate » pending sales

Weekly Scorecard 4-11-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 16:01:37 +0000

Finally a SMALL uptick in inventory however the sales continue to march along. Both the closed sales and the pending sales. There is one very important trend developing in the numbers. The average per sq. ft. price of the pending sales is significantly higher than sales of the closed prices. This trend is now clearly established. The reason this is significant is that it indicates a market that has bottomed and actually is starting some mild appreciation. In some cases the spreads are pretty big. South Bellevue which has a lot homes and can have more reliable averages, shows this week an average pending for sale per sq. ft. price of $227.33 per sq. ft. and an average sold per sq. ft. price of $210.98. The week before it was $257.12 and $197.19 respectively. as an example this time of year two years ago in 2009 the numbers would have been reversed with the pending per sq. ft. sale prices lower than the closed home sale prices. That trend was a reliable indicator of the market’s downward trend then. The question now is how much of a bounce or is this a blip in the downward trend. I don’t think so. The local economy is doing too good. Buyers are flowing in from the major tech players Microsoft, Google and Amazon and formed the floor for our local market. Many of the new buyers are VERY frustrated seeing the overall poor selection of inventory and are really surprised when they see a home come that is a half decent come on the market and then have three or four offers on it. That is not what the national perception is when they enter the market locally. The question though is no matter how good our local economy is there is some very heavy anchors to drag that any market needs to carry with it to make a climb and that is the overwhelming excess debt both public and private that really keeps a lid on things and also the lack of overall job formation. Looks like locally this year will be the tug of war between a glowing local economy and a miserable national economy.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-11-11

Weekly Scorecard 4-4-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 01:40:33 +0000

The inventories have ticked up by a hair but the big story this week is the closed sales. West Bellevue had 18 alone. This is a record for an area which does only two to three. Many of those sales looked to be potential tear downs but that number is very high for any market. In Bellevue market area this week there was 46 closed sales in total. I believe this number is not sustainable but given the reduced inventories and these sales volumes you see why there has been an uptick values as noted on the Altos graphs. However I don’t see prices rising high enough to bring more new construction or some of the better inventory to the market. It appears that many of these sales were pending short sales that finally came together. some of these sales were in progress for six months or more and I think some of the banks wised up and decided to move on. The other notable aspect of the sales when viewing them individually was the number of the sales that the home was on the market three days or less. It was evident that when a very nice new home came on the market that was competitively priced it sold quickly and in some situations had multiple offers. In the monthly graphs that are out you can see the lines of the decreasing inventories and increasing sales. What I am seeing at the street level is that the better inventory has gotten picked off and what is remaining is stale or over priced and when a new home comes on that is very nice it looks like there are now a number of buyers willing to pounce on it quickly.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-4-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-28-11

George Thurtle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 17:09:02 +0000

The same story. Inventories remain low but sales remain strong. The pending sales numbers are surprislingly strong with South Be;;evue havong 14 pending sales. The extreme upper end also shows stregth with one waterfront home closing and one for $7,500,000 going pending. The inventory numbers are not bumping as they should this time of year and in fact each of the areas were down agian slightly. If you check out the weekly Altos graphs on the Blog you will see that values are starting to bump. It looks like in this area there will be no “double dip” for this year any way of these numbers keep up. With the distressed inventory being a smaller percentage of the market prices will need to move up to give non-distressed sellers enough incentive to enter the market.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-28-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-21-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 26 Mar 2011 03:58:55 +0000

Finally the inventories have inched up but not as much as they should be doing this time of year. South Bellevue went up by 10 homes and East Bellevue by 7 homes but that still is not much for what should be coming on this time of year. The sales numbers were again strong and I thought the volumes would be peaking. Last week there was a big spread between the pending sales and the closed sales. This week the pending sales were up and the closed sales were down some. I thought I would see the pending sales remain low. There seems to be new buyers coming into this market keeping the sales volumes up. Also if you check the Altos stats there is definite stabilization and firming of prices. The combination of declining inventory and a relatively high sales volume seems to have had its natural result.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-21-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-14-11

George Thurtle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 18:18:33 +0000

Overall the sharp decline in inventory seems to have leveled off. West Bellevue was down a little and the other areas up a little. The number of closed sales was very high in all areas but the pending sale numbers were substantially under the number of closed sales. The combination of declining inventory and closed sales could not continue for ever. Looks like buyers are getting picky regarding the present inventory judging by the Pending sales. In looking at the individual homes this week closing there were only two bank owned homes and very few short sales. If you look at the Altos stats you can see a small bounce in pricing. It looks like the combination of declining inventory with a high rate of sales has at least stabilized pricing.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-14-11

Weekly Scorecard 2-28-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 18:21:12 +0000

The inventories continue to hold steady at very low levels or in the case of East Bellevue they have dropped to 160 homes. This is a number not seen in years. Also the sales pace remains steady. There is a new trend developing which the present numbers do not show. There is more new construction being sold. However this is not distressed bank inventory, most of that has been cleaned out. What is noteworthy is that these are new homes being built. However there is a catch. Many of these homes are coming thorough a “presale” listings meaning they are being sold off of plans and are not being built until an order has been received. This is the way of the future. There is too much risk and the cost of capital is too high to build homes in Bellevue on a speculative basis. It looks like a new cycle has started where buyers are willing to wait and have a home built as opposed to dealing with the existing inventory. This inventory continues to degrade and is progessively becoming older and in need of extensive updating and repairs. To get rid of this inventory will force prices down since buyers need huge premiums to take on these projects. As this inventory sells it will push down the averages overall but this also appears to be the final stages of cleaning up the inventory in this market as the sellers eventually “capitulate” and cut the prices enough to get rid of it.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-28-11

Weekly Scorecard 2-21-11

George Thurtle — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:29:20 +0000

The inventory keeps declining. This week South Bellevue saw the largest drop in inventory to under 300 homes. The other areas stayed about the same. There are some cross currents going on though. The values do not appear headed up and a look at the inventory will show that in my opinion it is degrading with newer homes in better condition making up less and less of the overall inventory. what you are seeing is a picking off of the better homes with no replacement for those homes. The foreclosures are up but those homes and condos are at the lower end of the price spectrum and need a lot of work. The better condition homes and new construction homes have worked their way through the system. Those sellers who got caught have had to dispose of their homes and the nicer homes are now owned by sellers that will need to see price increases before they bring their home to the market. This is what I am seeing on the ground as I talk to potnetial listings.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-21-11

Weekly Scorecard 2-14-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 16:01:51 +0000

The sales nunbers are strong and the inventories are still decreasing. East Bellevue (MLS Area 530) has seen a drop in home inventories to only a 163 homes this week. This inventory peaked in July at 294 homes and in November was 251 homes. If you look at the MLS stats and the Altos graphs you can see pricing is stabilizing with zipcodes 98004, 98005 and 98008 showing bottoming or increases. The 98008 zipcode had been dreadful for the last couple of years but there is a large influx of Microsoft buyers as the comapny is now hiring and and many buyers have been renting sitting on the sidelines. The closed sales numbers were strong but the pending sales seem to be at a lowere level than in previous weeks. Given the reduction in inventory this not unexpected.

In the last two years the buyer has been rewarded for waiting. Now with the prices stabilizing and a lack of inventory sitting on the side lines may not be the best strategy. Pricing is still week but it is looking like that the forced selling is being wrung out of the market. Present sellers who do not have to sell still do not like the pricing and they are the ones now waiting out the market waiting for a price bump before selling. There are a lot of leased homes out there and future inventory that can be berought to the market. The next month will be critical which way this tips. It appears this market is heading fore gridlock, Buyers demanding low prices and sellers witholding their inventory until they see prices rise. Let’s see how this plays out over the next month.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-14-11

Weekly Scorecard 2-7-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 02:00:29 +0000

The inventories remain extremely low and sales are strong. Overall the inventories are the lowest they have been in years. I have speculated the reason for this is the declining amount of distressed inventory. If you view the February stats you will the overall trends point to declining inventopries but pricing remaions flat. The average per sq. ft. prices are remain flat por slightly down. Until these prices rise there will be no incentive for nondistressed sellers to briong propoerty to the market. The question is how long will this squeeze play occur.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-7-11

Weekly Scorecard 1-31-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 22:58:53 +0000

The invetories appeared to have stopped declining but are not going up. This is really out of character for this tome of year no matter what the market. The sales remain brisk but when looking at the individual sales there were a bunch of low end bank homes. One even sold for under $300,000 in West Bellevue. These homes were really in por condition and needed work and would be what I would call “tail-enders”. The next couple of months will be interesting. The bank owned and short sale inventory is declining. There will be some new distressed inventory coming to the market based on what is happening recently in the “Distressed Inventory Report” of 1-29-11 but the sales appear to be absorbing the inventory. The next couple of months will be VERY interesting. Distrssed inventory has been the “tail wagging the dog” in the market. It will be interesting to see if this flips.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 1-31-11