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Weekly Scorecard 10-25-10

The gap between pendings sales and sold homes looks to be see sawing. In the last couple of weeks the pending sales looked to be surging. However the pending sales for South Bellevue were pretty good at 11 this week. Overall sales volume appear to be gradually rising in this post tax credit real estate market.

The other issue which does not show in the spreadsheet is the volume of the upper end closings. West Bellevue had another waterfront close and and a Lochwood Lozier for over $2,000,000. Also the amount of bank inventory in the both the pendings and the closings appears to be declining as a percetage of those numbers.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 10-25-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, Pewnding Sales, sold
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Distressed Inventory Report 10-23-10

The amount of Distressed Inventory keeps declining. The Notice of Trustee sales are seeing some very large week to week reductions. The issue is if this decline is the result of underlying market fundamentals or is because the banks have stopped processing foreclosures. First of all not thay many banks stopped processing and most of them have started processing foreclosures again including Bank of America. Antidotally I am seeing a lot of short sales closing but not a lot of replacement inventory. Many short sale listings that were “aged” have either gone to foreclosure or many of them recently have been sold. In addition it appears that the economy has stabilized enough that the tail end of the distressd inventory from people hanging on is getting worked through the system.  Ten percent unemployment will keep new homes coming into the system but the wave of distressed inventory generated by the economy locking up in the fall of 2008 seems to be dissapating on the beach now.

The only area with any increase at all, and this was very mild, was West Bellevue. some areas such as East Bellevue are down almost 60% from their peak of total distressed inventory. Also if you look at the MLS inventory short sales are not balloning which would be the logical conclusion if the lenders stopped foreclosing. The short sale process does not require a foreclosure and the lender does not have to prove they have the rights to the note and deed of trust as in a foreclosure, all they have to do is release their interest.  If you are looking for distressed inventory there is less to select from and the window of opportunity may be closing if more buyers start entering the market next spring.  I know there is a theory that another foreclosure wave is coming with the major ARM resets happening in 2011 and 2012 but I am not seeing it here locally. In addition I am seeing banks respond and process short sales in a much more timely manner. Let’s see what the trends are in the next couple of weeks.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-23-10

Tags: bank owned, Bellevue Homes, Foreclosed, notice of trustee sale, short sales
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Weekly Scorecard 10-18-10

Finally getting caught up. The volumes are down this week and we will have to wait to see if this is seasonal or if the overall level of demand is declining. The pendings and the solds appear to be coming in line so the true market after the tax credit expiration is starting to resolve. Overall values have appeared to remain steady but volumes are down. The inventories have leveled off and are no longer increasing but this time of year we will usually start to see a decrease but that does not appear to be happening.

The individual sales were interesting with two waterfront homes on Lake Sammamish going pending. That is why average price and per sq. ft. numbers are higher. Also in West Bellevue it appears a couple more tear downs have sold. The tear dwon market appears to be making a solid come back in West Bellevue.  Also there appeared to be no distressed inventory sold this week either bank owned or short sale.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 10-18-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, inventory, pending sales, sold homes, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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Distressed Inventory Report 10-16-10

I am finally caught up now with having the reports become more timely. I will get into the specifics of this week’s numbers but first want to discuss the big news of the last couple of weeks and that is new mess caused by the mortgage servicers not following proper foreclosure procedures. As has been in the news Bank of America has stopped foreclosures on residential homes and many other servicers have pulled back from foreclosing. The upshot is that you will start seeing less homes going to foreclosure and more emphasis on short sales. The reason that lenders will most likely go to more short sales is that they do not need to take title and demonstrate they have taken title properly, they only need to release their interest in the title the present seller has. It avoids the somewhat involved process of forfeclosure to properly acquire title. However what this will do is cause the amount of publicly recorded distressed inventory to decline. Until this probelm gets worked out a better gauge in the future will the amount of MLS listed short sales. So in future reports let’s see if the amount of MLS listed short sales starts increasing and see if the amount of recorded notice of trustee sales starts declining.

The same trend continues an overall reduction in NTS inventory and some big declines in that inventory. 98007 saw a reduction of 7 homes alone in the zip code. It appears that lenders are starting to work more with short sales. Also this week there were couple of new $1,000,000 plus foreclosures in the Gelndale area. However these banks appear very agressive on their pricing and these homes will probably have to sit for a while before the lenders get realistic on their pricing.

Next week there will be a series of posts describing what is happening with the foreclosure mess.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-16-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, Foreclosed, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 10-11-10

The market appears to be starting to “normalize”. The pending sales numbers and the closed sales gap is starting to narrow. As has been mentioned previously that gap was running 2 to 1 with closed sales out numbering pending sales. The gap, as speculated, was mainly due to the expiration of the artificial stimulus caused by the home buyer tax credit. When the tax credit excpired the number of pending sales dropped dramatically. Now we are finally seeing the last of the sales stimulated by the tax credit. In the next month or so we should start to see what the market reallyt looks like without this stimulus.

Inventory and sales are declining but it is hard to tell if this is just the usual seasonal fluctuations or has to more with overall market fundamentals. Really won’t know until next spring. However this time of year is good for home buying as there is less competition and those sellers who need to sell will be under pricing pressure. Another issue to keep in mind is that banks are particularly motivated this time of year to move “aged” inventory and get it off their books to take further write downs. The banks weant to clean up their balance sheets and reduce the aged inventory as much as possible as they head into their annual reviews next year.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 10-11-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes. Sold Homes, inventory, pending sales
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Distressed Inventory Report 10-9-10

Distressed inventory overall took another big drop. Again where the largest declines occured was in the Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS). As an example in the 98008 zipcode this week saw another large decline from 34 homes that were NTS down to 28 for this week. The successive weekly drops in the number of NTS properties is quite dramatic. On September 18th there were 52 homes that were NTS then the next week was 39 followed by next week at 34 and this week at 28. That is a decline of 24 in four weeks. In general when drops in the NTS inventory has occured there has been a rise in the number of bank owned homes. This was the cycle in 2009 where we saw the NTS inventory swell and then the bank owned homes increased and then as the tax credit kicked in the spring of 2009 we saw those bank owned homes decline as the banks disposed of the inventory.  This cycle though we do not see the bank owned inventory rising it is staying steady and also gradually declining. This means those NTS homes are getting short sold or are having loan modifications done.  Antidotally I am seeing much more short sale activity in the office and on an individual transaction basis with some processing times for approval as little as 30 days and this is for homes which are not “preapproved” short sales.

There are two additional trends I am seeing. The first is that a number of “aged” short sales are capitulating to obtain a purchase and sale agreement in order to avoid foreclosure. These aged short sales are where the opportunities are. The other trend I am seeing is a reduction in the overall amount and quality of the distressed inventory. There are a few nice things at the upper end but overall the quality and desireability of the distressed inventory is in pretty sorry shape with many homes having functional defects or needing extensive and expensive repairs.  The replacement inventory is not occuring.

The apreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-9-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, foreclosed Bellevue Homes, notice of trustee sale
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