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Distressed Inventory Report 3-6-10

Holding steady and trending downward that seems to be the trend this week. All areas held steady or reduced their distressed inventory. 98008 which had been seeing increasing inventories since the first of the year for the first time held steady. West Bellevue (WB) saw decreasing inventories even though four new homes came through foreclosure. This was a project foreclosed on by Frontier Bank. South Bellevue (SB) seems to be holding steady also. What did go up was the listed inventory both foreclosed and short sale. Hopefully the lenders are starting to get their acts together and figure out how to get the foreclosed homes on the market quicker and most importantly deal in a timely manner with short sales. These lenders figured out how to do automated underwriting and approve a loan in a millisecond; they should institute the same system for a short sale. A short sale is just a loan approval in reverse. It takes the same documentation: proof of unemployment, proof of lack of income, proof of depleted assets. The party applying for a short sale would fill out a form similar to a loan application documenting their financial condition and then when a sale occurs an appraisal would be ordered just like in a normal sale. There is no reason this cannot be done in a 30 day period like a normal sale. This approach would save the lenders millions and make them much more efficient. Just like a normal loan there could be a pre-qualification process to see if the seller would qualify based on hardship. If not then the issue of deficiency could be addressed at that time.

Handling the short sale in a timely manner would be one of the single best things for the economy and the lender. The value of the assets secured would be preserved since the seller is directly involved and a condition of the short sale approval could be that the property be delivered in good condition; not trashed and gutted. The lender by not having to take as many homes back and manage the sale of a vacant asset would save about 20% over a foreclosure. In addition by streamlining the process there would not have to be as big of a buyer premium on the price since the buyer could have some degree of security of knowing the status of the sale in a timely manner.

The problem is bank managements. I have found them to be incredibly arrogant and out of touch and take very little responsibility for their own decisions. The tendency is to deny the problem, even now; by contracting to outside servicers who all vie for their business by saying they can do it cheaper. The last thing considered is the condition of the property, the borrower’s situation and the buyer; in other words the human element. Bank managements give the servicers very narrow guidelines and think that by issuing guidelines and beating their chest and threatening they can actually make things better. There is not one iota of creative or innovative thinking which is what you pay managements for. The foreclosure crisis is a reflection on the condition of American upper managements and their failure to actually create, innovate and lead.

Enough of my rant here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-6-10

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Weekly Scorecard 3-1-10

There are two news worthy items to report. The first is that the overall volume of sales and pending sales is very high. The sales and pending sales being reported now occured in January. The other big newsworthy item is that inventories remain low. I thought you would see inventories spike up but it appears there is not a lot of bank inventory coming to the market and that the prices are staying low enough that the more capable sellers locally are having no incentive to participate in the market.

Also on the better homes we are starting to see multiple offer situations in more than just the low end. This market could get really tight if the sales rate remains at the same level and the inventories continue to fall. If this trend continues you will start to see upward pressure on pricing in 3 to 4 months. Now if you look at the monthly price per sq. ft. graphs they are pretty steady and don’t show much upward movement but that may change. At my open houses I am continually seeing new buyers come into the market that feel more confident about their personal situation and very dissappointed regarding the lack of homes to select from. Especially nicer newer homes.

The spreadsheet link is here: Weekly scorecard 3-1-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, report
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Distressed Inventory Report 2-27-10

The big news this week is that the distressed inventory has seen a decline. The number of homes with notice of trustee sale (NTS) took a siginificant decline in all areas of Bellevue. The number of foreclosed homes held steady. It appears that more homes are being sold at auction and that more short sells are successful. South Bellevue (SB) saw the amount of homes with NTS decline from 31 to 24. All areas saw a decline in its NTS homes.

The amount of listed inventory remains steady. We will see if this trend continues but overall , in my opinion, this market is very muddled with declining inventories and soft demand There are very few bank owned new homes. This inventory is pretty well cleaned out with only three bank homes being listed now in the Bellevue area. There are few with a notice of trustee sale but not very many. Last November and December saw most of this inventory being cleaned out. Anyone who wants to know about these homes please email.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-27-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, Distressed Inventory, Foreclosed, New Homes, notice of trustee sale
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Weekly Scorecard 2-22-10

A couple of observations this week. The first is that inventories remain low. Usually this time of year they start rising. The other observation is that other than West Bellevue sales volumes seem to be staying relatively high. The homes being absorbed are at the lower end of the price range but overall the numbers of solds and pendings seem relatively strong. South Bellevue had a very high pending volume of 13 homes. Of those home 5 were new homes 4 of them presales due to depeleted finished inventory and one finished new home. Also a first; a home went pending at $2,200,000 in South Bellevue that was not a waterfront home. This was a view home in the Pinncale.

The spreadsheet link is here: Weekly scorecard 2-22-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes. Solds, East Bellevue, inventory, pending, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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Distressed Inventory Report 2-20-10

There appears to be no big spike in disressed inventory. East Bellevue (EB) saw a drop of five homes overall. This is a first. The only area with an increase was West Bellevue (WB). WB had four new Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS) but overall it appears that the NTS inventory is falling. More homes are selling before the Trustee Sale actually takes place. Antidotally I see more short sales receiving approval quicker. The sales rates seem steady and that combined with quicker short sale processing are keeping the lid on a potential increase in distrssed inventory.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-20-10

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Weekly Scorecard 2-15-10

Still no big increase in inventories. I would expect more homes coming to the market this time of year no matter what the market conditions. EB had a mild increase from 212 to 220 and the areas held steady. Sales and homes going pending in EB seem somwhat slow so we will have to keep an eye on that area. SB had 13 homes go pending this week. The per sq. ft. spike in the sales price for SB is caused by a $4,000,000 waterfront home closing.

Here is the spreadsheet: Weekly scorecard 2-15-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending, Scorecard, sold, Weekly
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