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Weekly Scorecard 4-19-10

Well better late than never. Inventories keep rising both East Bellevue and West Bellevue added inventory. South Bellevue however hs all the action. The inventories remain steady but the sales volume remains high. If inventories continue to rise in the other areas without an increase in sales you know the result prices stay flat. There appears to be an abundance of hopefull sellers who have seen houses sell and want to put theirs on the market.

Here is the spreadsheet: Weekly scorecard 4-19-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, pending, sold, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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Distressed Inventory Report 4-17-10

Last week there was a spike in distressed inventories but this week it looks like they have pulled back a little. There were a couple of more short sales in West Bellevue but overall things look even or trending down. What is interesting this week was the NTS/Foreclosure ratio. This week all ratios took a bigger drop down to one. This is usually a sign of “topping” which is interesting after last week’s spike. Usually a spike like the one seen last week will have a trend up for two or three more weeks but it is strange to have such a blip up with no follow through momentum. In addition it looks like there has been a reduction of some of the short sale inventory with the drop in the NTS/Foreclosure ratio. Let’s see what the next couple of weeks have in store.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 4-17-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, Distressed Inventory, Foreclosed, Short Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 4-12-10

Inventories appear to be rising a little bit. East Bellevue saw inventory jump to 264 homes from 251 the week before. This is from a low 214 homes on March 1st of this year. It is normal for inventories to increase during this time of year but usually sales also increase. Sales appear to be holding steady but not increasing so if this trend continues it will continue to hold prices flat. The marekt appears to be churning. As sales occur it appears there are sellers on the sidelines willing to bring inventory into the market.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-12-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, For sale, pending sales, sold
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Distressed Inventory Report 4-10-10

Another increase this week in Distressed Inventory. East Bellevue is at an all time high with 138 homes and West Bellevue saw Frontier Bank take back a couple of projects so it saw a spike in inventory. South Bellevue was the only area to see a decrease. What is interesting is to see is some of the Zillow graphs and the Altos graphs which are showing mild price appreciation. Increasing distressed inventory will only hold prices flat or even put downward pressure if sales slow down. Bottom line is that it is real hard to have much pricing pressure in an economy with 10% unemployment and massive under employment. Lenders are slow to bring homes to the market so in another 30 to 60 days you should see the amount of listed bank owned homes coming to the market.

My personal feeling is that we will still end the year with a mild price increase but as I said before the prices will probably dip a little bit as the “hangers on” get no help from a tepid economy and just cannot hang on any longer. At an antidotal level this is what I am seeing is that people with resources have drained those resources and were hoping for a break and just have not recieved that break. These homes need to be worked through the system. Hopefully that will occur over the next few months but the people in those homes that are trying to hang on and do the right thing deserve something much better than “health care”. Corporate taxes should be lowered and companies should be allowed in the next couple of years to expense capital purchases in one year. However the bonuses the bonuses at financial insitutions that received TARP or any form of governemt financial guarantee such as deposit insurance should be taxed. If someone’s bonus excceds 35% of their income then the incentive becomes too great to enter into risky behavior particularly at financial insitutions. If a company has some form of a government guarantee then any bonus over 35% of the income should be taxed at a rate 75%. This will make the boards readjust pay to a larger base salary and actually assess the risk levels of the market they are in, in order to revise the pay and see if the salary paid is sustainable. If Goldman Sachs complains they can go back being a true investment bank and actually do investment banking in companies rather than taking government insured deposits and trading currency, commodities and debt securities.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 4-10-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, distrssed inventroy, Foreclosed, notice of trustee sale
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Monthly Numbers

The monthly numbers for Bellevue are now posted. Inventories are starting to rise a bit, but the sales were also very strong. Prices remain stable. The per sq. ft. sales numbers are very stable. West Bellevue is a little misleading because there were two large waterfront sales in those numbers. If you look at the trend line it is at $300 per sq. ft. for the baseline for west Bellevue. The blips up reflect one time large sales. All of the per sq. ft. sales graphs are very stable. The price averages move around as the size and style of the homes change. When the per sq. ft. prices start moving up it is a sign of appreciation.

Sellers seem to have seen the increased sales volumes and are starting to bring property to the market. It appears that as sales occur more inventory waits in the wings to be brought to the market and the market is in a churning mode.

Here is the link for the Stat: http://eastbellevuere.com/index.php/category/statistics/monthly/

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventories, pendings, price per sq. ft., sold, Statistics
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Weekly Scorecard 4-5-10

The story this week is that inventories keep creeping up but the sales volumes remain impressive. In surveying the listings, both sold and pending, what the numbers are not showing is the number of listings selling at or higher than the asking price. As we have discussed before if a home has “obvious” value there seems to be no shortage of buyers. What is obvious value? Well the market seems very oriented to the per sq. ft. price and homes in good condition that are under the average per sq. ft. price seems to go very quickly and in some cases are bid up over the asking price. How do you find this price? Go to the monthly stats on this blog and click on “Monthly” and find the per sq. ft. price graph. That is the prevailing per sq. ft. price. Listings priced at or under that number for the maket area that you are interested in seem to be moving. There looks to be no shortage of buyers but they are demanding a good deal. This is keeping prices flat.

However a look at the Altos research graphs shows the decline in inventories and the pricing graphs which were falling appear to be bottoming and in some cases turing up slightly. Local home owners have noticed that houses have sold and are bringing inventory to the market but the inventory being brought to the market is at higher prices than buyers seem to want to pay. Let’s see how this tug of way plays out.

Here is the spreadsheet: Weekly scorecard 4-5-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending, price per sq. ft., sold
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