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Weekly Scorecard 12-6-10

Inventories continue down but also so does the sales volume.  A couple of notable numbers. The first is there were 13 closed sales in South Bellevue this week a pretty high number when compared to the activity in other areas. The other noteworthy number is that the East Bellevue inventories are down to an all time low of 204 homes. This number had peaked at 297 homes in July. The other trend this week as the lack of highend sales. In weeks prior there was a number of highend over $1,000,000 sales in all market areas but that does not appear to be the case this week. As a result it drove the overall per sq. ft. numbers to some pretty low levels.

The monthly ststa ore in so check them out.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 12-6-10

Tags: Beelevue Homes, pending sales, Per Sq. Ft. Price, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 12-4-10

The numbers are starting to fluctuate again and this time a little uptick. The next few weeks you will not be able to tell much since most of the lenders do not process foreclosures during the holidays. They have enough to catch up on. a little more new foreclosed inventory is coming to the market and the inventory appears to be turning over quicker than it was, all accept for the low end condominiums. In terems of foreclosure trends it will be well over a month before we see what is really happening.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 12-4-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, Foreclsoed Homes, trustee sale
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Weekly Scorecard 11-29-10

Seasonal changes seem to be in full swing. Inventories continue down. South Bellevue is down 334 homes from its peak in August of 432 homes.  Pending sales seem to be also slowing down. West Bellevue had no pending sales this week.  However that market has a lot of up and down movement on both prices and volume. The big surprise was South Bellevue had  most of its homes go pending were upper end new construction. Usually this market is more moderate with most of the sales being under $500,000.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 11-29-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 11-27-10

The amount of bank owned inventory and the publicly recorded notice of trustee sale (NTS) look to be slowly declining. Also in past weeks the inventory which is coming to the market is at the lower end and much of it is in the form of low end condos in older converted apartment buildings. The better newer inventory just keeps declining with situations in which I am seeing multiple offers on better homes at reasonable prices. It is logical that the amount of distressed inventory would begin to stabilize since there has not been a new round of layoffs and employment locally looks to actually be on a mild uptick.  With unemployment stabilizing the question is can the consumer keep supporting its overall debt burden. That is what seems to be causing the present round of foreclosures with excessive debt on residences which have no economic value. There is no incentive to support that debt even with a good paying job. You can rent for less each month and not have the burden of the debt. I think in the next two to three years that is what will be driving the distressed inventory market is the consumer looking to rid itself of the crushing debt load due to an ill-timed acquisition.  

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-27-10

Tags: bank owned homes, Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 11-22-10

This week the amount of inventory continues to decline however the pending sales and sold home numbers seem to be diverging some.  In East Bellevue there were 11 sold homes and only 4 pending sales.  In South Bellevue the same  trend 15 sold homes and 7 pending sales. West Bellevue was different with 4 sold homes and 5 pending sales. Given the time of year it is hard to determine if this is seasonal or a developing market trend. However West Bellevue does show some underlying strength. Also there were two sales not included in the West Bellevue numbers this week since they were essentially land sales. One was a waterfront lot on Evergreen Point for over $3,000,000 and a view lot on Clyde Hill with a small tear down for $1,350,000. This again is showing strength in West Bellevue with the purchase of very expensive vacant land parcels to build high end custom homes.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 11-22-10

Tags: East Bellevue, Pending Sales Bellevue Homes, sold homes, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
Discussion: 1 Comment

Distressed Inventory Report 11-20-10

The numbers have peaked and show a slight decline from the October/early November spike. It was speculated this Spike was the major lenders reviewing their foreclosure practices to make sure they were in compliance. If that is the case the back log was pretty shallow. Also you will see that the NTS inventory is being reduced after a large spike. This would imply steady market activity this week. The distressed inventory available continues to degrade. Of the new NTS inventory only four of them were homes. The other was low end condos in older conversion buildings. In addition the average age of the NTS inventory continues it decline to being older. The new construction inventory now except for a couple of cases is almost all gone and if you survey the MLS most of your new homes are “presale” listings meaning the builder has secured the lot and will only build the home if there is a buyer. You will see this trends continue because of tight credit and the builders who are left are very adverse to market risk.

At the street level I do not see the second wave of ARM resets that everyone was talking about. If the lenders are smart they will reset those rates to more rates and work with those customers. Many of those ARMS will only go into default if they try to bump the rate too much. Those lenders who made the the “Option ARM” loans where a payment rate is set at 1% but the note rate is 7% and the difference accrues to the principle amount should have to eat their own junk. These loans were made to raise the internal rate of the Mortgage Backed Securities.  They were nothing but a scam. They were buried in the offerings and constructively manipulated the portfolios to enhance  them for sale, i.e. fraud. The investors who bought these things were thought they were getting a higher yield but with very little differential risk. The borrowers who took out the loans thought they would push what they really owed down the road. However the investors and the originators of these loans are a lot smarter and more sophisticated and should bear the brunt of their own greed. Any upper management executive at any lending institution who knew they were offering this type of security should have their bonuses set aside in a reserve fund to pay for the short fall of this junk. That also goes for the securities dealers who sold them and the rating agencies who gave this junk a AAA rating. The lack of personal responsibility by upper management is appalling. Enough of the rant, the spreadsheet is below.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-20-10

Tags: bank owned homes, Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
Discussion: No Comments