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Distressed Inventory Report 7-31-10

The overall rate of the distressed inventory increase appears to be slowing. The number of bank owned homes are down a little and in East Bellevue there actually was a small overall decline in distressed inventory.

The Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS) keep rising and in zip code 98008 there were 5 notices alone. Most of the foreclosure and short sale activity is in condominiums. There are a couple of high end properties but overall those have declined.

The bulk of the opportunity in distressed properties appear to be in homes under $500,000.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 7-31-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, Distressed Inventory, Foreclosed, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 7-26-10

It appears that inventories overall are peaking and that sales continue at a steady pace although not as quick as in the April and May time frame. The market seems stuck in a “trading range”. If you look at the per sq. ft. sale numbers overall they seem to have not moved when averaged out. I use the per sq. ft. price as mopre accurate guide as opposed to average price since overall factors like neighbiorhiid charateristics and underlying land value are factored. In essence when a market heads up you see the per sq. ft, prices move up overall. This price reflects the underlying value assigned to the neighborhood and the underlying land. When a market begins to move up it is the underlying land that escalates. When the land values in neighborhoods escalate high enough like in West Bellevue the tear down cycle starts kicking in.

What you see in the numbers is that East Bellevue and South Bellevue are stuck in a per sq. ft. price of $220 per sq. ft. and this number has not moved for over 18 months. West Bellevue’s value is a little over $350 per sq. ft. Buers seem to be waiting out the market and individual listings and when the values come down to the the overall market value based on the per sq. ft. number the home will sell. The homes that sell the quickest are those that price at this value when they list. There has been many homes that have gone in under a week because the price was listed at or slightly under the per sq. ft. average price for a home in good condition. Generally sellers who want to “test” the market just sit until they come down to the demonstrated market price.

There is no shortage of buyers but they seem only willing to pay so much and no more. When a home is listed at the market price there are often multiple offers. These buyers seem to have their price and have been rewarded for waiting but also know the market good enough when a price will come down far enough to be competitive. Many of these buyers have been tracking the market for over a year and only buy when they feel it has “bottomed” and for the last year it appears to be these prevailing average per sq. ft. prices.

The apreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 7-26-10

Tags: average Price, Bellevue Homes, inventory, Per Sq. Ft. Price, Sold. Pending
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Distressed Inventory Report 7-24-10

The Notice of Trustee sale (NTS) just keep climbing. There were 7 alone in South Bellevue (SB). What is interesting and what the spreadsheet does not show is the price range these are in. In 2009 there was a lot of new construction but now over 90% of these are under $500,000 with many of those being condos. In the Bellevue area it appears many of the high end homes have worked their way through the system but if things keep dragging this could change. It appears that many people who were hanging on just can’t do it any longer. In the last few months there was some churning where there would new NTS homes coming to the market but that was offset with sales. It is apparent that with the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit that the lower end is suffering and that offsetting sales have slowed down. You can start to see the short sale inventory increase in the listed MLS inventory.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 7-24-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, forreclsoed, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
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Distressed Inventory Report 7-17-10

The numbers keep climbing. The foreclosures are basically holding steady but the Notie of Trustee Sale keeps rising. Not at the same rate as the last few weeks but the trend is up and shows no sign of turning around although the upward rate has slowed down. Again the gap between the listed inventory and the actual inventory is very large. Altough sale volumes remain steady increasing inventory, especially distressed inventory will keep downward pressure on prices.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 7-17-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes. Foreclossure, Distressed Inventory, Notice of Trustee of Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 7-12-10

The story this week is two fold. Inventories keep gradually rising. However the big story is that ratio of closed saled to pending sales has equalized. If you were checking weeks prior you will remember while the closed sales number were pretty good the pending sale numbers were pretty low. The expiration of the tax credit seem to be the reason with a rush to get a home under contract prior to the April 30th expiration date. While in many price ranges on the Eastside the tax credit was not applicable to many buyers the market did seem to go somewhat in sympathy to it. Well this week the sale numbers were pretty good and the pending sale numbers were almost up there with the actual closed sales. We should be getting beyond the time period the tax credit has influenced the market and will get to see what the real underlying demand is in the next few weeks.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 7-12-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, inventories, Pendings Sale, sold, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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Distressed Inventory Report 7-10-10

The numbers just keep creeping up. No big spikes and the numbers may be peaking but they are still increasing; not holding steady or declining. Again the listed invetory for distressed property is not climbing in relationship to the actual inventory of Distressed Property. Looks like the new distrssed inventory will not be coming to market until September or October. The question is how big of a depressive effect this will have on the market. General rule of thumb on market timing is to buy on the backside of the distressed inventory decline and at the peak of the MLS listings. Those people who did that in Q3 2009 got some of the better transactions. However overall I would say the quality of the inventory is declining. The distressed new construction is almost gone except for unfinished homes and the distressed homes coming to market are not in that good of condition. Buyers want the homes in good condition because they do not have the money to fix them. As a result many of these homes will need to be sold at steep discounts which will overall be a depressive effect on prices for the new few months at least.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 7-10-10

Tags: bank owned, Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, Foreclosed, notice of trustee sale, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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