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Weekly Scorecard 3-21-11

By George Thurtle on March 25th, 2011 at 8:58 PM · No Comments

Finally the inventories have inched up but not as much as they should be doing this time of year. South Bellevue went up by 10 homes and East Bellevue by 7 homes but that still is not much for what should be coming on this time of year.  The sales numbers were again strong and I thought the volumes would be peaking. Last week there was a big spread between the pending sales and the closed sales. This week the pending sales were up and the closed sales were down some. I thought I would see the pending sales remain low. There seems to be new buyers coming into this market keeping the sales volumes up. Also if you check the Altos stats there is definite stabilization and firming of prices. The combination of declining inventory and a relatively high sales volume seems to have had its natural result.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-21-11

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Distressed Inventory Report 3-19-11

By George Thurtle on March 23rd, 2011 at 12:28 PM · No Comments

The numbers finally ticked up a bit this week and there is more listed bank owned and short sale inventory coming to the market in the MLS. Other than West Bellevue the quality of the inventory is degrading and needs a lot work. Don’t expect to get that new bank home that was avaialble last year. In fact there are only two new bank owned homes available. One is in the Beaux Arts area in Bellevue and the otehr is in the Gelndale area and is listed by yours truly. The interesting thing when looking at the numbers in the amount of churning in the homes with Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS)¬† is you will see¬† four or five new homes in the NTS category but the increase in the over numbers in nil or only up one or two homes. At this point in time it looks like the market is consuming the distressed inventory at about the same rate it is being created.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-19-11

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Weekly Scorecard 3-14-11

By George Thurtle on March 23rd, 2011 at 11:18 AM · No Comments

Overall the sharp decline in inventory seems to have leveled off. West Bellevue was down a little and the other areas up a little.  The number of closed sales was very high in all areas but the pending sale numbers were substantially under the number of closed sales. The combination of declining inventory and closed sales could not continue for ever. Looks like buyers are getting picky regarding the present inventory judging by the Pending sales. In looking at the individual homes this week closing there were only two bank owned homes and very few short sales. If you look at the Altos stats you can see a small bounce in pricing. It looks like the combination of declining inventory with a high rate of sales has at least stabilized pricing.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-14-11

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Distressed Inventory Report 3-12-11

By George Thurtle on March 15th, 2011 at 7:23 AM · No Comments

Another downturn this week in the overall amount of distressed inventory. Generally it should be going up but it looks like a lot of things have worked through the system. Overall the amount of distressed inventory (Bank Owned Homes and Notice of Trustee Sales) is at 307.¬† Down from its near term peak of 317 two weeks ago and down from the long term peak of 422 homes in August of 2010. However while it does appear to be leveling off the amount of the drop is not convincing and the overall numbers could be “basing”. It looks like this could be a case of the “muddles” as looks like they could be a new range of of between 300 to 350 homes but lets see.

The listed inventory is also down for both bank owned and short sale. There does not appear to be new listed inventory coming to the market all except for West Bellevue. In that area there were two new homes. The interesting thing about West Bellevue is that the least expensive bank owned home is $1,549,000 and they top out at almost $5,000,000. This is a switch where before the bank owned inventory was at the lower end. Also in South Bellevue a waterfront came on the market at almost $3,000,000 in Kennydale.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-12-11

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Weekly Scorecard 3-7-11

By George Thurtle on March 12th, 2011 at 4:09 PM · No Comments

The sales are taking their usual seasonal upturnb but not the inventories. South Bellevue did finally see its inventories rise by 12 homes. The other areas were flat to down a little. East Bellevue dropped to 159 homes which is a ridiculously low number. The sales however are starting to surge with the usual seasonal regularity. Again South B ellevue was the winner with 14 sold homes and 14 pending sales. This is a pretty brtisk sales rate. The inventory is starting to fet pretty well picked over and the new inventory comes to the market it is gemerally in the lower prioce ranges and in many cases needs some work. I am starting to see some very short sale times for homes that have been brought to the marklet which are well well priced and have been redone inside and out. Many sellers look like they are updating their kitchens and bathrooms in order to obtain a better price. If the home needs repairs the price really gets hammered. 

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-7-11

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Distressed Inventory Report 3-5-11

By George Thurtle on March 5th, 2011 at 12:44 PM · No Comments

An unexpected surprise this week. The overall inventory of distressed homes dropped from 317 to 307. I was expecting a mild increase. In addition like last week there was a lot of turn over in the distressed inventory. As an example in MLS Area 530 there were four new Notices of Trustee Sale (NTS) but the overall inventory for the NTS homes in that area declined from 80 to 74 homes. That is also including seven new NTS homes being added from the week before. As a result in two weeks 11 new NTS homes were added in the East Bellevue Area but there was a net reduction of 6 homes overall from 80 to 74. This means somehow 17 homes were absorbed either through a short sale, foreclosure or loan modification. Given the fact the foreclosure numbers are flat and not rising and I am not seeing inventory crossing over from NTS to bank owned then it appears that short sales and loan modifications must be removing this inventory.

If the distressed inventory keeps being reduced along with the overall inventory then there will be a floor forming under this market in the next couple of weeks. However it usually takes three weeks to establish this trend. That is why I was surpsed this week is that we had 8 weeks of continuing increases in inventory and in addition I felt there was some inventory held back as banks cleaned up their foreclosure practices that this trend would continue at a somewhat slower rate or maybe level off but a drop was not expected.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-5-11

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