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Weekly Scorecard 2-28-11

The inventories continue to hold steady at very low levels or in the case of East Bellevue they have dropped to 160 homes. This is a number not seen in years. Also the sales pace remains steady. There is a new trend developing which the present numbers do not show. There is more new construction being sold. However this is not distressed bank inventory, most of that has been cleaned out.  What is noteworthy is that these are new homes being built. However there is a catch. Many of these homes are coming thorough a “presale” listings meaning they are being sold off of plans and are not being built until an order has been received. This is the way of the future. There is too much risk and the cost of capital is too high to build homes in Bellevue on a speculative basis. It looks like a new cycle has started where buyers are willing to wait and have a home built as opposed to dealing with the existing inventory. This inventory continues to degrade and is progessively becoming older and in need of extensive updating and repairs. To get rid of this inventory will force prices down since buyers need huge premiums to take on these projects. As this inventory sells it will push down the averages overall but this also appears to be the final stages of cleaning up the inventory in this market as the sellers eventually “capitulate” and cut the prices enough to get rid of it.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-28-11

Tags: Bellevue Homes, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 2-16-11

Interesting numnbers this week. On the surface it looks like we were treading water with an overall increase of distressed inventory rising only one home from 316 to 317 but if you check the spreadsheet there was some action going. the 98005 zipcode saw a drop of bank owned homes of five homes with the week before having 22 bank owned homes of record in that zipcode now this week it has dropped five homes to 17 homes. If you check the ALTOS Stats you can see that pricintg appears to be stabilizing in the 98005 zipcode. However in the 98004 zipcode there were seven new notices of trustee sale posted (NTS). There is a lot of turning over of inventory going on. What you can’t see on the spreadsheet is there is a constant and much more rapid turn over of inventory than I have seen in the last couple of years where I would see the same houses each week. If there wasn’t this turn over then I think you would see this inventory continuing to climb and spiking like the oil prioces are now.

The listed bank owned inventory continues to decline and that is where I also see somewhat less turn over. However overall both of the bank owned and short sale inventory continues to degrade. In the East Bellevue zip codes otehr than a couple of homes most of it is very low end needing a lot of repair. As we have discussed before this inventory is very hard to sell. No one wants a 1970 split in Lake Hills that needs to be gutted and redone. These homes while they have come down in price need to come down much more to give someone an incentive to buy these and fix them up. This is the type of inventory that is dragging the market down now.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-26-11

Tags: Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 2-21-11

The inventory keeps declining. This week South Bellevue saw the largest drop in inventory to under 300 homes. The other areas stayed about the same. There are some cross currents going on though. The values do not appear headed up and a look at the inventory will show that in my opinion it is degrading with newer homes in better condition making up less and less of the overall inventory. what you are seeing is a picking off of the better homes with no replacement for those homes. The foreclosures are up but those homes and condos are at the lower end of the price spectrum and need a lot of work. The better condition homes and new construction homes have worked their way through the system. Those sellers who got caught have had to dispose of their homes and the nicer homes are now owned by sellers that will need to see price increases before they bring their home to the market. This is what I am seeing on the ground as I talk to potnetial listings.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-21-11

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 2-19-11

The numbers are continuing to move up. The Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are the ones taking the big jump with with South Belleuve having 8 new notices in one week. Haven’t seen activity like that since last summer. There is some churning going on with the NTS notices. In West Bellevue there were four new NTS notices but the amount of NTS inventory only jumped by one home. The sales appear strong as the bank owned inventory is changing but the sales are no longer keeping up with the new foreclosure activity. Also there appear to be some houses entering the market in these new foreclosures but most of the activity is at the lower end under $500,000. All except one new NTS in West Bellevue was a low end condo in an old converted apartment building.  In general it takes about 90 days for a foreclosed home to enter the system. The amount of listed foreclosed and short sale homes do not yet refelct the increase in the overall numbers.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-19-11

Tags: Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, Short Sale
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Weekly Scorecard 2-14-11

The sales nunbers are strong and the inventories are still decreasing. East Bellevue (MLS Area 530) has seen a drop in home inventories to only a 163 homes this week. This inventory peaked in July at 294 homes and in November was 251 homes. If you look at the MLS stats and the Altos graphs you can see pricing is stabilizing with zipcodes 98004, 98005 and 98008 showing bottoming or increases. The 98008 zipcode had been dreadful for the last couple of years but there is a large influx of Microsoft buyers as the comapny is now hiring and and many buyers have been renting sitting on the sidelines. The closed sales numbers were strong but the pending sales seem to be at a lowere level than in previous weeks. Given the reduction in inventory this not unexpected.

In the last two years the buyer has been rewarded for waiting. Now with the prices stabilizing and a lack of inventory sitting on the side lines may not be the best strategy. Pricing is still week but it is looking like that the forced selling is being wrung out of the market. Present sellers who do not have to sell still do not like the pricing and they are the ones now waiting out the market waiting for a price bump before selling. There are a lot of leased homes out there and future inventory that can be berought to the market. The next month will be critical which way this tips. It appears this market is heading fore gridlock, Buyers demanding low prices and sellers witholding their inventory until they see prices rise. Let’s see how this plays out over the next month.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 2-14-11

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventories, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 2-12-11

The numbers are still on the rise. In looking at the new inventory coming on there are more houses this week. Previously it was lower end condos. The number of listed short sales in South Bellevue took a jump this week and overall some of the new bank inventory is making it into the MLS. However the pricing on the new bank inventory seems pretty aggresive. If you have the time, patience and stand a lot of frustration your best opportunity still appears to be aged short sales.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-12-11

Tags: Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, NTS, short sales
Discussion: No Comments