Blog

Weekly Scorecard 6-14-10

The numbers for the week shows a spread between the pending sales and the sold numbers to be about 50%; with the sold numbers being higher. This shows a slowing of volumes post tax credit. What something like a short term tax credit does is “borrow” buyers from the future and it takes a few months for the market to get back into a normal equilibrium after the expiration of the incentives. I suspect about September or even August we will be seeing what the true underlying market demand is. However sales do continue to happen and pricing appears stabile with average sold per sq. ft. price being roughly on par with the pending per sq. ft. price. When the market was diving in the winter of 2009 you would see the pending per sq. ft. pricing lower than the average per sq. ft. sold. This is not the case now and I suspect this real estate market in the next couple of months will have adjusted to the new economics.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 6-13-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending, sold
Discussion: No Comments

Distressed Inventory Report 6-12-10

The Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS) keep gradually rising. Foreclosures are not rising as rapidly as the NTS. Also if you look at the MLS numbers the number of short sales are increasing. However most of the homes are not in great condition and overall the quality of the inventory that is distressed appears to be declining. If you have the patience a short sale can be a good value but not all short sales are equal. There are a number of factors that go into a successful short sale. You must have a cooperative lender and seller that understand the reality of the borrower’s situation. If there is a second mortgage involved it adds another level of complexity. Also some banks are more motivated than others. As an example those new homes or homes that had Frontier Bank was holding the mortgage on now have some flexibility. Here is why. when Frontier had the loans its capital levels were very low and as a result they had a very limited ability to write down the loan. As a result if you made an offer the response most likeley came back at “appraised value” since that is what they had the loan at and is the number that they could sell at and not further impair their capital. Now that Union Bank has acquired Frontier Bank they have sufficient reserves to take the write downs on these loans. In addition for some of the assets the FDIC will take 80% of the loss as an inducement for the acquiring bank to come in to manage and dispose of these assets. The good news is with these local banks is you get quick repsonses.

On the other hand some of your money center banks will do short sales but their process is much more cumbersome and if a second loan is involved then it can be quite difficult. They are doable. However if the lender plays too rough with borrower they often go to foreclosure but more lenders are trying to avoid this.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 6-12-10

Tags:
Discussion: No Comments

Weekly Scorecard 6-7-10

Things appear to be marching along in this post tax credit real estate market. Inventory levels which were building in the last couple of months have peaked and held steady. Will probably decline in July if the traditional market cycles restore themselves. The closed sold homes peaked last week which would be expected given the last minute tax credit rush. Sale volumes have fallen to a lower level as indicated by the pending sales but the sales do appear to be steady. Prcing also looks to be steady there is no trend line up but also no real indication of the prices falling post tax credit. Seems like the low interest rates are keeping the market moving ahead in slow but steady manner.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 6-7-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending, sold
Discussion: No Comments

Distressed Inventory Report 6-5-10

Last week was pretty scary with the big spike but this week appears to be holding steady with some numbers declining slightly in some ares. In East Bellevue there was a lot of sales on bank owned listed property and they declined from 11 to 6. Now there is a lot more coming to take its place but things do appear to be moving. It appears the inventory spike which started in late April may be leveling off.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 6-5-10

Tags:
Discussion: No Comments

Weekly Scorecard 5-31-10

Inventories have inched up again but the big nerws is the number of sold homes. All areas saw impressive sales numbers. The amount of sold homes was impressive. Now keep in mind there was the expiration of the home buyer tax credit at the end of April so some of these closing might have been in the last minute rush. The pending sales did dip past week but while not as impressive as the amount of closed sales the pending sales appear to be slowly trudging along. will be interesting to see future volumes.

The spreadsheeet is here: Weekly scorecard 5-31-10

Tags:
Discussion: No Comments

Distressed Inventory Report 5-29-10

Well the second wave is coming. All areas are up paticularly regarding the Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS). Some of these are repostings from failed short sales where the Trustee Sale was postponed and in some cases the lender feels the necessity to repost the NTS and start the clock again. This was the case for some new construction homes in 98005. However in reviewing the individual filings most of the new notices are individuals not builders. It appears that a number of people have been trying to do the right thing and hang on and the economy is cutting them no slack.

A new wave with lower interest rates will present some new inventory and some new buying opportunities.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 5-29-10

Tags:
Discussion: No Comments