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Distressed Inventory Report 9-11-10
It does appear that the Distressed Inventory is peaking. Some of you who follow this blog know I was concerned the Distressed Inventory would rise after the vacation season due to the fact the servicers would be more aggressive filing foreclosures. For now this does not seem to be the case. The other interesting trend is the churning for the Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS). The numbers are holding steady but a review of the inventory shows a high level of inventory being removed and new inventory being replace. However this week the NTS inventory took it lowest climb in four months. If this trend continues the next couple of weeks then it would appear for now the Distressed Inventory is stabilizing.
The news cycle is turning very negative regarding residential housing. In addition I am seeing a lot of price cutting right now as the news cycle has driven some of the buyers out of the market as evidenced by the fall in pending sales. The counter trend is that inventories of general market homes and distressed inventory appears to be peaking. As we have discussed before buying opportunities generally occur on the backside of the inventory decline until the news cycle catches up. The combination of the negative news cycle with declining inventories may provide some good buying opportunities in the next couple of months. However if you are a buyer and play this cycle too aggresively you could see a market shift happen fairly wuickly. This would be due to a combination of a reduction of inventory with a little bit of good nees can make things turn around pretty quick. Not a large swing but sellers would be more bold. Now they appear to be willing to capitulate a little more. Particularly those short sale sellers who need to get an offer in to avoid foreclosure.
The Spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 9-11-10
Tags: Bellevue Homes, Distressd Inventory, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale
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Weekly Scorecard 9-6-10
I went to do the Weekly Scorecard and discovered I was a week behind. So here is the one for week of September 6th. Same trends continue with the gap between the listed and closed sales still pretty large but it appears to be narrowing. At some point in time they need to come into some sort of equalibrium. At that time will know what the true underlying market is without the artificial stimulius. However it does appear inventories have peaked and even in some areas starting to slightly trend down.
I will have more to say on overall market trends later in the week but it appears that reduced sales volumes are starting to force some downward pricing pressure.
The apreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 9-6-10
Tags: Bellevue Homes, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 9-4-10
I did something I haven’t done for a while and that is take some time off. As a result I am just posting Saturday’s inventory report today. There is a definite change in the trend. The Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS) are up significantly. They had fallen for a while and I was suspecting that was due to the servicers who handle these things taking vacations but now it appears they are back in full swing. The other significant factor is that the overall number of distressed properties is down. As an example MLS Area 530 is down overall in distressed inventory from 195 homes to 186 homes. A month ago this number was 208 homes so that is over a 10% decrease. However this week alone there were 21 NTS in this market area but the signifact factor is that as new NTS come on they are being offset by reductions in the overall number. It can be inferred that there are number of short sales taking place since the number of foreclosed homes is not rising. This means these homes are either getting loan modifications or short sales are occuring.
What is interesting is the composition of the homes which are NTS. There is a lot of condiminium inventory. However in West Bellevue (WB) I am seeing a number of upper end $1,000,000 dollar plus homes which are now going NTS. So it is the high end and the low end of the market that is seeing the distress. As has been discussed earlier I think you will see more high end homes as the affluent who have resources are starting to drain those resources and are not seeing the bounce in their businesses or occupations occur in a more normal cycle. These people are having to make decisions that never would have to make.
The apreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 9-4-10
Tags: Bellevue Homes, Distressed, foreclosed homes, Notice of Trustee sale Inventory
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Weekly Scorecard 8-30-10
Well I seem to keep getting further behind but finally got to the weekly numbers. The schizophrenia continues a high number of closed sales and low numbers of pending sales. West Bellevue was the best example with 11 closed sales and no pending sales. There was one bright spot in West Bellevue a new construction home closed for $3,000,000 that is almost one a week and they is not bank owned. As we discussed earlier there is very little or no new construction inventory over $1,000,000 since prices are well below production cost still. There is however a number of custom homes started since those individuals who would like a new home are finding little or no inventory to select from.
In addition it appears inventories have peaked. They are not dropping but the numbers are not rising. The issue however is that in the next few months with the same amount of inventory and half of the sales than previous months what will happen to pricing. I am starting to see a lot of pricing pressure; particularly for short sales.
The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 8-30-10
Tags: Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, inventory, pending sales, sold homes, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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Distressed Inventory Report 8-28-10
The inventory of distressed homes does appear to be peaking. There is a lot of turn over in the homes with Notice of Trustee Sale with many of those numbers falling; particularly in South Bellevue and East Bellevue. You can most likely read into this that more banks are approving short sales. The only area which appears to be having a continuing increae in inventory is West Bellevue. Both the number of bank owned and NYS homes were up and gradually continue to creep up.
If the distressed inventory is peaking that will be good for the market overall. However now the big concern in the next couple of months is a negative news cycle as Wall Street figures out that it was overly optimistic about the economy and comes to the realization that this cycle is not the traditional recovery cycle they are used to.
The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 8-28-10
Tags: Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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Weekly Scorecard 8-23-10
The numbers are somewhat interesting. It appears inventories are peaking except for West Bellevue where they continue to climb. The fundamentals of the West Bellevue market look a little weak with rising inventories and very week pending sales in the last four weeks. The closed sales look OK but those pending sales numbers are not good for the amount of the inventory and its average price. The pending sales in East Bellevue and South Bellevue are also down but their inventory numbers do not appear to be rising. The closed sales numbers for South Bellevue were very impressive.
At some point in time the gap between the pending sales and the closed sales needs to narrow in order to see where this market will settle in at.
The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 8-24-10
Tags: Bellevue Homes, East Bellevue, pending sales, sold homes, South Bellevue, West Bellevue
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