Bellevue Real Estate » Bellevue Homes

Weekly Scorecard 4-11-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 16:01:37 +0000

Finally a SMALL uptick in inventory however the sales continue to march along. Both the closed sales and the pending sales. There is one very important trend developing in the numbers. The average per sq. ft. price of the pending sales is significantly higher than sales of the closed prices. This trend is now clearly established. The reason this is significant is that it indicates a market that has bottomed and actually is starting some mild appreciation. In some cases the spreads are pretty big. South Bellevue which has a lot homes and can have more reliable averages, shows this week an average pending for sale per sq. ft. price of $227.33 per sq. ft. and an average sold per sq. ft. price of $210.98. The week before it was $257.12 and $197.19 respectively. as an example this time of year two years ago in 2009 the numbers would have been reversed with the pending per sq. ft. sale prices lower than the closed home sale prices. That trend was a reliable indicator of the market’s downward trend then. The question now is how much of a bounce or is this a blip in the downward trend. I don’t think so. The local economy is doing too good. Buyers are flowing in from the major tech players Microsoft, Google and Amazon and formed the floor for our local market. Many of the new buyers are VERY frustrated seeing the overall poor selection of inventory and are really surprised when they see a home come that is a half decent come on the market and then have three or four offers on it. That is not what the national perception is when they enter the market locally. The question though is no matter how good our local economy is there is some very heavy anchors to drag that any market needs to carry with it to make a climb and that is the overwhelming excess debt both public and private that really keeps a lid on things and also the lack of overall job formation. Looks like locally this year will be the tug of war between a glowing local economy and a miserable national economy.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-11-11

Distressed Inventory Report 4-9-11

George Thurtle — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 19:06:02 +0000

There is definitely a trend developing. There are very few foreclosed homes; just a net gain of one from the week before. But the number of homes posted with a Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS) is where all the action is and if you take a look at the numbers for West Bellevue you can see there was 10 new properties which went NTS but only a total increase of 4 homes. There is a LOT of churning in the Preforeclosure activity and it looks like lenders are gearing up and getting more proactive to make the short sales happen. Last year you can see the NTS homes pile up and then go to foreclosure; not this year. There is a couple of reasons for this. The conventional one is that lenders are preferring short sales to foreclosure because they do not need to prove ownership of the note in order to have the ability to foreclose. Faulty documentation as noted in a 60 Minutes Documentary is very problematic in the mortgage banking industry. Without proof of ownership of both the Note and Deed of Trust in Washington State the lender has no legal right to foreclose. Some borrowers are becoming savvy to this requirement and are taking advantage of it. Also second lien holders who get wiped out in foreclosure are being much more aggressive in challenging the ability of first lien lenders to foreclose. As a matter of fact there is a home in Lakemont with a Chase first that is having to settle out with a second lien lender because of their challenge regarding Chase’s ability to foreclose. This is being done after the fact after the foreclosure has happened. The result of these requirements is that it is much easier to “release” their interest in title than to prove ownership of the loan documents in order to acquire title through foreclosure. That is the explanation everyone is putting forward for the increased short sale activity.

There is another reason in my opinion and that is monetary. I know of no case where a lender has done better going to foreclosure than doing a short sale. In the early stages of this foreclosure mess the lenders thought they should be “tough” and often turned down short sales at “ridiculous” prices only to take the home back and 18 months to 24 months later finally sell and close the home and receive as much as 50% less. In the meantime they had the cost of ownership and their own internal administration needed to take care of the property etc. so when all was said and done they might have received much less than the net proposed on a short sale. I think this is the real reason. The top managements at these bank tend to be driven by money and see the law and other requirements as not really applying to them and that has not changed. That is why there was an initial movement by the lending community to go to Congress and actually propose legislation which relieved them of their legal obligations to show ownership of the loan. Paper work is something for the “little people”, i.e. the borrower. so expect more short sales but don’t count on the lenders to get those right. In general if you are the third buyer in after two failed attempts on a Chase short sale you will probably get it.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 4-9-11

Weekly Scorecard 4-4-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 01:40:33 +0000

The inventories have ticked up by a hair but the big story this week is the closed sales. West Bellevue had 18 alone. This is a record for an area which does only two to three. Many of those sales looked to be potential tear downs but that number is very high for any market. In Bellevue market area this week there was 46 closed sales in total. I believe this number is not sustainable but given the reduced inventories and these sales volumes you see why there has been an uptick values as noted on the Altos graphs. However I don’t see prices rising high enough to bring more new construction or some of the better inventory to the market. It appears that many of these sales were pending short sales that finally came together. some of these sales were in progress for six months or more and I think some of the banks wised up and decided to move on. The other notable aspect of the sales when viewing them individually was the number of the sales that the home was on the market three days or less. It was evident that when a very nice new home came on the market that was competitively priced it sold quickly and in some situations had multiple offers. In the monthly graphs that are out you can see the lines of the decreasing inventories and increasing sales. What I am seeing at the street level is that the better inventory has gotten picked off and what is remaining is stale or over priced and when a new home comes on that is very nice it looks like there are now a number of buyers willing to pounce on it quickly.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-4-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-28-11

George Thurtle — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 17:09:02 +0000

The same story. Inventories remain low but sales remain strong. The pending sales numbers are surprislingly strong with South Be;;evue havong 14 pending sales. The extreme upper end also shows stregth with one waterfront home closing and one for $7,500,000 going pending. The inventory numbers are not bumping as they should this time of year and in fact each of the areas were down agian slightly. If you check out the weekly Altos graphs on the Blog you will see that values are starting to bump. It looks like in this area there will be no “double dip” for this year any way of these numbers keep up. With the distressed inventory being a smaller percentage of the market prices will need to move up to give non-distressed sellers enough incentive to enter the market.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-28-11

Distressed Inventory Report 3-26-11

George Thurtle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 14:39:09 +0000

It looks like the numbers are peaking. Down slightly this week. Again, I can’t emphasize this enough, the new inventory coming on is mostly junk. If you want a great deal on a fixer in Lake Hills then you have bank inventory to look at but if you want a nicer newer home then you are out of luck. Your best shot at that type of home is a short sale. The lack of better bank inventory and reduced inventory overall has caused a little bump in values if you look at the weekly Altos graphs. The local economy is good and combined with reduced inventories overall and fewer distressed sellers it looks like a solid bottom is forming until the government screws something up again.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-26-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-21-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 26 Mar 2011 03:58:55 +0000

Finally the inventories have inched up but not as much as they should be doing this time of year. South Bellevue went up by 10 homes and East Bellevue by 7 homes but that still is not much for what should be coming on this time of year. The sales numbers were again strong and I thought the volumes would be peaking. Last week there was a big spread between the pending sales and the closed sales. This week the pending sales were up and the closed sales were down some. I thought I would see the pending sales remain low. There seems to be new buyers coming into this market keeping the sales volumes up. Also if you check the Altos stats there is definite stabilization and firming of prices. The combination of declining inventory and a relatively high sales volume seems to have had its natural result.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-21-11

Distressed Inventory Report 3-19-11

George Thurtle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 19:28:44 +0000

The numbers finally ticked up a bit this week and there is more listed bank owned and short sale inventory coming to the market in the MLS. Other than West Bellevue the quality of the inventory is degrading and needs a lot work. Don’t expect to get that new bank home that was avaialble last year. In fact there are only two new bank owned homes available. One is in the Beaux Arts area in Bellevue and the otehr is in the Gelndale area and is listed by yours truly. The interesting thing when looking at the numbers in the amount of churning in the homes with Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS) is you will see four or five new homes in the NTS category but the increase in the over numbers in nil or only up one or two homes. At this point in time it looks like the market is consuming the distressed inventory at about the same rate it is being created.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-19-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-14-11

George Thurtle — Wed, 23 Mar 2011 18:18:33 +0000

Overall the sharp decline in inventory seems to have leveled off. West Bellevue was down a little and the other areas up a little. The number of closed sales was very high in all areas but the pending sale numbers were substantially under the number of closed sales. The combination of declining inventory and closed sales could not continue for ever. Looks like buyers are getting picky regarding the present inventory judging by the Pending sales. In looking at the individual homes this week closing there were only two bank owned homes and very few short sales. If you look at the Altos stats you can see a small bounce in pricing. It looks like the combination of declining inventory with a high rate of sales has at least stabilized pricing.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-14-11

Distressed Inventory Report 3-12-11

George Thurtle — Tue, 15 Mar 2011 14:23:25 +0000

Another downturn this week in the overall amount of distressed inventory. Generally it should be going up but it looks like a lot of things have worked through the system. Overall the amount of distressed inventory (Bank Owned Homes and Notice of Trustee Sales) is at 307. Down from its near term peak of 317 two weeks ago and down from the long term peak of 422 homes in August of 2010. However while it does appear to be leveling off the amount of the drop is not convincing and the overall numbers could be “basing”. It looks like this could be a case of the “muddles” as looks like they could be a new range of of between 300 to 350 homes but lets see.

The listed inventory is also down for both bank owned and short sale. There does not appear to be new listed inventory coming to the market all except for West Bellevue. In that area there were two new homes. The interesting thing about West Bellevue is that the least expensive bank owned home is $1,549,000 and they top out at almost $5,000,000. This is a switch where before the bank owned inventory was at the lower end. Also in South Bellevue a waterfront came on the market at almost $3,000,000 in Kennydale.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-12-11

Weekly Scorecard 3-7-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 23:09:07 +0000

The sales are taking their usual seasonal upturnb but not the inventories. South Bellevue did finally see its inventories rise by 12 homes. The other areas were flat to down a little. East Bellevue dropped to 159 homes which is a ridiculously low number. The sales however are starting to surge with the usual seasonal regularity. Again South B ellevue was the winner with 14 sold homes and 14 pending sales. This is a pretty brtisk sales rate. The inventory is starting to fet pretty well picked over and the new inventory comes to the market it is gemerally in the lower prioce ranges and in many cases needs some work. I am starting to see some very short sale times for homes that have been brought to the marklet which are well well priced and have been redone inside and out. Many sellers look like they are updating their kitchens and bathrooms in order to obtain a better price. If the home needs repairs the price really gets hammered.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 3-7-11