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Weekly Scorecard 11-15-10

The trend of inventories falling continues. This is a common trend for this time of year. However in Q4 in 2008 and 2009 this trend was much milder and we actually saw inventories growing in a couple of months as many bank owned homes were being brought to the market. We really won’t know much of the long term trends until the January numbers start coming in.

The other note worthy trend with the new numbers is that it appears more buyers are coming into the market. In some areas pending sales have started exceeding closed sales. Having pending sales rise this time of year is a counter trend. Pending sales usually fall with the inventory as the market winds down at the end of the year. As you know we have discussed that pending sales fell off the table as the home buyer tax credit expired. They are now recovering and we will see how that trend shakes out at the first of the year.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 11-15-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 11-13-10

The numbers keep riding but the rate has slowed. The Notice of  Trustee (NTS) is where most of the activity is occuring. In West Bellevue there was 5 new NTS in this week alone. This area had seen the least activity over the last few weeks. The other areas had a much more modest increase in inventory and NTS activity. The major issue is though is a lot of the new activity is in lower end condominiums.  The amount of listed inventory both short sale and bank owned seems to be declining.  This should change in the next few weeks as these new NTS sales go through foreclosure. It can take these banks a long time to bring inventory to the market.  In some cases over 90 days.

As we have discussed last week the quality of the inventory seems to be degrading with most of the inventory coming on being lowered priced homes needing repair or even worse old condo conversion units. However this week there is an exception. There is a home located at 2730 1o5th Ave SE in Beaux Arts. This home is a little over 5000 sq. ft. and is located in a prime area of West Bellevue. Beaux Arts is a private community which has retained a very natural character and is located close to downtown Bellevue and I-90 access. In addition this community has 1100 ft. of community beach on Lake Washington. This home was a builder’s own personal residence and was exquisitely done.  This is one of tail ends of the nicer new comes coming to the market. This home was foreclosed on about six weeks agao and will be listed in the next couple of weeks. It was at $1,680,000 as a short sale. If you figure about $300 per sq. ft. that would put the value at about $1,500,000. Anyone interested in this home should get a hold of me and we can discuss the best way to approach an offer. The bank selling the home is Wells Fargo and they have a policy of not accepting offers from the public for almost two weeks. In the early stages of the listing they only accept offers from municipalities and non-profits. So if you make an offer initially they just sit on it and wait for other offers so your best timing is right after they begin accepting offers from the general public.  The only good news about Wells Fargo is they tend to list high and their inventory will age and at some time they will capitulate. After 30 days then is the best time to make the offer. If this one gets listed over $1,500,00o I think that is what might happen here.

Here is the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-13-10

Tags: bank owned, Beaux Arts, Bellevue Homes, Foreclosed, Short Sale, West Bellevue
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Weekly scorecard 11-8-10

The pending sales and the sold home numbers are starting to correspond. As you may be aware in the past weeks the sold homes had been outpacing the pending sales by almost two to one. It was speculated that this was a hangover from the home buyer’s tax credit offered by the government and the corresponding lack of new pending sales were buyers pulling back from the market after the expiration of that incentive. The market now seems to be getting back to an undistorted condition and we will get to see what the true underlying market is in terms of demand and pricing. The interesting number this week is that pendings sales are exceeding closed sales in some MLS areas. The inventory also appears to be peaking but this may just be seasonal.

The numbers for MLS 520 West Bellevue are distorted since they it includes a larger waterfront that closed for almost $10,000,000. This home sold very quickly. Estate quality very high end homes seem to be in demand.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 11-8-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending sales, sold homes
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Distressed Inventory Report 11-6-10

It is evident there was a back log due to the foreclosure moratorium by the major lenders. However this week the nes is that the banks are steeping up the rate of actual foreclosures. Last week the Notice of Trustee sales (NTS) saw a big spike in their numbers, however this week the it is the foreclosures themselves which are increasing. There is still a number of homes going NTS but nat as many as last week. Also there appears to be a lot od churning with at loeast 3 or 4 homes that were NTS being removed and then being replaced. Basically you need almost 5 or 6 new homes going NTS to offset the market and foreclosure activity. Most of the bank owned propoerties however are of a realtively low grade mainly condos and entry level housing. There are some nice newer ones in the 98005 zip code in the Glendale area and some real expensive ones in West Bellevue but that is about it. Aged short sales seem to be presenting the most opportunity right now. Also if any one has any interest I will be listing a new construction and unfinished home in the Kel;sey Glen area but there is no reason an offer cannot be submitted now.

The swpreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-6-10

Tags: bank owned homes, Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, short sales, South Bellevue, Weswt Bellevue
Discussion: 1 Comment

Weekly Scorecard 11-1-10

This will sound like a broken record but again this week a pretty high number of closed sales and a relatively low number of pending sales. At some point in time these numbers need to converge. Also inventories are declining as well as sales volumes. This is pretty normal for this time of year no matter what the market conditions. However if you are a buyer this time of year can be a pretty good time to buy. If the seller is motivated the reduced showing traffic and sales volumes can work in your favor. Also on bank owned properties there is a lot of motivation to book sales by the end of the year. After the year there is less motivation as they will do their asset review. Aged listings are the best opportunities with aged short sales and bank listings probably presenting the best value opportunities.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 11-1-10

Tags: Bellevue Homes, inventory, pending sales, sold
Discussion: 1 Comment

Distressed Inventory Report 10-30-10

Well it looks like the foreclsoures are starting again after a lull. As you have read in the news the major lenders stopped processing foreclosures due to documentation difficulties. In the last weeks we were seeing the notices of trustee sales declining and overall it appeared distressed inventory was selling off and being reduced. However this week there is a big jump in the number of homes that have gone NTS (notice of trustee sale). The difficult part to reconcile though is the jump in numbers for the homes going NTS is not matching up with the previous weeks. As an example in the 98004 zip code the number of homes going NTS went from 29 to 60 in one week but it only showed 3 new notices of trustee sales being filed. There could be a couple of reasons for this, the first is that some notices may have been refiled to insure they complied with state law. This would mean some of the servicers processing foreclosure s are trying to clean up their act. The other is that there might have been a large project such as a condo project where the lender was foreclosing on individual units owned by one developer. I will look at the actual NTS filings a little more and see if I can get this figured out. However in the next coup0le of weeks let’s see if these new NTS being filed is clearing out a back log or if we are on an upward spike in new foreclosures.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-30-10

Tags: bank owned homes, Bellevue Homes, foreclosed homes, notice of trustee sale, short sales
Discussion: No Comments