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Distressed Inventory Report 10-3-09

Same thing different week. The number of homes that could be called distressed inventory remained the same as last week at 73. A couple of differences though the number of new homes that were new inventory, either foreclosed or Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS), were down from 10 to 4. Last week the news was the number of new homes either foreclosed or NTS had a big jump to 10 new homes but the overall inventory was down due to a reduction of the homes that were NTS. These homes either cured their payments in arrears or were short sales that might have actually closed. This week it appears the overall sales activity was very low also.

The popular theory presently is that the number of NTS and foreclosures would rise as people who drained their resources trying to hang on eventually would have to throw in the towel. That may have been the case but the recent last three months of sales might have kept this inventory in check. The economy is not creating many jobs but the unemployment rate in the Seattle appears to have stabilized around 8%. If unemployment remains stable then at some point in time these personal situations will get resolved. The future looks dismal though for any growth. The main political initiatives nationally are focusing on health care and green house emissions. The present approaches to both of these issues appear to have employers shouldering most of the cost for these programs so there will be even more incentives to “downsize” and put even more pressure to cut cost to offset these new expenses. In addition the direct subsidies for the economy provided by the Federal Reserve are being scaled back. This has all the looks of a “muddle”.

While I avoid making predictions I suspect we will see decreased sales volumes in East Bellevue but also a gradual reduction in inventories as sellers who have the option take their ball and go home as the see very little upward pressure on pricing. Fortunately given the mature demographics and overall conservative nature of the East Bellevue home owner this is the vast majority of the ownership profile. East Bellevue is a mature neighborhood in a great location. Neighborhoods like West Bellevue experienced a bunch of near do wells that were looking for the prestige of West Bellevue and could get in the neighborhood because of cheap money. As an example in West Bellevue in the 98004 zip code there are 21 foreclosed homes. Compare this to the 98005 zip code with roughly the same population you have only 7 homes and in all three zip codes 98005, 98007 and 98008 there are only 27 foreclosed homes. This combination of mature ownership, affordable pricing and excellent location to jobs, schools and services also means that the foreclosed and short sale homes have a much better chance of selling. I will talk more in the coming weeks about these demographics and overall neighborhood trends. Also I am considering expanding the “Distressed Inventory Report” to include the 98004 and 98006 zip codes if there is any interest in that please let me know.

Click on the link for the spreadsheet. East Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-3-09

Tags: commentary, Distressed Inventory, East Bellevue, OCtober, report, West Bellevue
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Weekly Scorecard 9-28-09

I was out of town last week and didn’t have access to a computer so I missed doing last week’s report so I was interested in seeing what this weeks’s trends would be. I was really surprised to see another BIG drop in inventory this time down to 243 homes. This amount of overall inventory is really low for a market that generally runs at about 300 homes. For the last week 9 homes sold, one was a waterfront that sold for $1,827,000; even without this waterfront there was a huge jump in the per sq. ft. sales price for the 8 remaining homes at $267 per sq. ft. This number had been stuck at $220 per sq. ft. for the last three months. If this trend of declining inventories and rising per sq. ft. prices continue then it could be sign of some underlying appreciation is beginning to occur. What makes this $267 per sq. ft. price number all the more interesting is that there is no new construction or other factors that skewes these numbers sometimes. The average home sale price was $467,731. This is a pretty typical average number for East Bellevue so the fact the per sq. ft. sales price was so high with the average home square footage at 1,857 could be an indication of some underlying upward pressure on pricing. Time will tell.

There were 7 pending home sales with one bank owned and one short sale. The pending sales had pretty typical numbers with average list price being $418,896 and the average per sq. ft. sales price being a more typical $229. As we have seen in the Distressed Property Report overall distressed property sales are making up fewer of the overall listings. It appears that as the distrssed property is worked through the system it is stabilizing prices. In addition there appear to be fewer sellers in the market because there are fewer “forced” sellers who do not want to sell at the lower price levels that homes appear to have stabilized at. The next month will be interesting to see what happens. The overall economy still stinks and the only good thing to be said is that the rate people are being laid off at is declining. This market appears to be headed to that no man’s land of declinging inventory coupled with soft demand.

Tags: inventory, pendong, scorecoard, sold, Weekly
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Distressed Inventory Report 9-26-09

The same trend continues with a gradual reduction in overall inventory both but the amount of foreclosed homes are increasing and those with Notices of Trustee Sale are decreasing. The number of foreclosed homes was one of the highest ever with 27 total foreclosed. The number of homes with the Notice of Trustee Sale was the lowest ever at 46. This number peaked in 8-08-09 at 74. So in addition to absorbing inventory through short sales; that may actually be happening; it also appears some of those homes are proceeding to foreclosure but the good news is that in East Bellevue anyway there does not appear to be more homes coming in and taking their place. Click on the link for the spreadsheet. I have had computer problems so the Weekly Scorecard did not make it last Monday but it will be up and running this coming Monday. East Bellevue Foreclosure Report 9-26-09

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Distressed Inventory Report 9-19-09

The numbers stayed the same. This week there was a total of 76 homes which could be categorized as distressed inventory in East Bellevue. Same as last week. Some new foreclosures and Trustee Sales came on but that was offset by a reduction in the same amount of inventory. The only number to change was the MLS listed short sales at 21 and that is the lowest number since the report started. Doesn’t look like we are seeing a new wave of foreclosures like other areas of King County. Click on the link for the spreadsheet. East Bellevue Foreclosure Report 9-19-09

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Weekly Scorecard 9-14-09

Another big drop in inventory. This week the number of listed homes in the NWMLS for area 530 is 231. Last week it was at 249. Two weeks ago this number was over 280. Five homes sold this week and only one was bank owned. The average per sq. ft. sales price was stuck at $225. This number just seems to stay in that $220 per sq. ft. range. The average sale price was $483,500. Pretty typical East Bellevue numbers. There were no new home sales or waterfront sales in these numbers.

There are six pending sales; in this batch of pending sales there were three bank owned homes and one short sale. This is the first time in a long time we have seen this much distressed inventory in the numbers. Also this week broke the trend of having the per sq. ft. sales price of the pending homes exceed that of the sold homes. Due to the distressed inventory the per sq. ft. sales price was $196 per sq. ft. one of the lowest numbers yet.

Bank owned inventory appears on the decline but the mystery is why the declining inventory situation. My guess is that sellers who came to the market when there was a bounce in spring were hopeful at obtaining better pricing. That wish hasn’t worked out. The buyers remain stuck at the price it gets them to buy and they seem to wait and pick off inventory. It looks like some of the sellers have taken their ball and gone home to try again next year.

I will be gone this week but will update the Distressed Inventory report and Weekly Scorecard when I get back next Tuesday.

Tags: bank owned, Distressed Inventory, price per sq. ft., Scorecard, Weekly
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Distressed Inventory Report 9-12-09

The dichotomy of increasing number of foreclosed homes and a decreasing number of homes with a notice of Trustee Sale continues. The number of foreclosed homes is at an all time high at 26. The most since the report began. The lowest it has been was 16 on the August 8th report. However the number of homes with notices of Trustee Sale is at an all time low of 50. In the same August 8th report that number was at its peak at 74. It looks like that some of the homes with notices of Trustee Sales are going to foreclosure.

However the good news on the flip side is that the number of overall distressed homes is at an all time low of 76 this is a big drop from the 88 the week previous. So some of those homes that were scheduled for a Trustee Sale are either selling or having their defaults cured through a loan modification or some other means. In addition it also appears that the local economy is stabilizing and very little new inventory is being brought to the market with only 1 new home showing for its notice of Trustee Sale this week. Some of those homes that had notices of Trustee sale appeared to have closed so mybe some of those pending short sales are starting to happen. We will see in the Weekly Scorecard on Monday. East Bellevue Foreclosure Report 9-12-09

Tags: 9-12-09, Distressed, foreclosure, inventory, notice of trustee sale, report, Weekly
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