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Distressed Inventory Report 11-14-09

No real definite trends yet. As we discussed last week there was a dichotomy occurring where the overall numbers of distressed inventory was rising and the NTS/Foreclosure ratio was falling. As I discussed in that Post having declining NTS numbers and the number of increased foreclosed homes is not a sustainable condition since with declining NTS numbers the ultimate number of distressed homes need to fall. East Bellevue did break the trend this week with the overall number of distressed homes rising by only one but the NTS/Foreclosure ratio also bumped up a little bit from 1.12 to 1.14. This means for every home that is foreclosed there is 1.14 homes have their NTS (Notice of Trustee Sale) filed. We will need to see if this trend continues.

West Bellevue was another story. They had the same weird trend going on. Their overall distressed inventory increased by one home from 66 to 67 but the NTS/Foreclosed ratio fell to an all time low of .76. However there were two new foreclosures that popped up out of nowhere so let’s also give this one another couple of weeks for these anomalies to work through.

South Bellevue made a little more sense. The number of homes remained steady at 44 but the NTS/Foreclosure ratio fell under 1.0 to .91. This is the only market that is sending a very timid signal that things may be peaking but again the next two to three weeks will be critical.

The one thing I am noticing is that the banks are starting to bring foreclosed inventory to the market a little quicker. Click on the link for the spreadsheet.

Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-14-09

Tags: Distressed Inventory, Foreclosed, notice of trustee sale, report, Week, Weekly
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Weekly Scorecard 11-9-09

Well the inventory appears to be oscillating around the 250 number. This week it is 254 homes, an increase from 243 homes the week prior. Inventories bottomed at 237 homes three weeks ago and then bounced up to 253 homes and then dived to 243 homes and have landed at 254 this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them over 260 next week. But let’s see what happens.

The volume of sold homes continued to be robust at 9 homes this week and only one bank owned home in the bunch. Very typical numbers with the average per sq. ft. sales price being $225 and the average home sale price was under $500,000 at $478,222. These are numbers that are very typical for East Bellevue and represent where the market has been at since May when it bottomed.

The pending home sales were the interesting story this week. In the previous weeks the pending home sales volume was pretty low. One week as low as 3 homes. Also the per sq. ft. sales listed price of the pending homes were lower than the closed sale prices. However this week there was 7 pending sales with the per sq. ft. average list price of $235.11 and an average list price of $634,271 for the home overall. All of this suggests some up swing in pricing.

Usual story. Sales appear to keep happening as long as the price is right.

Tags: inventory, pending, Scorecard, sold, Weekly
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Distressed Inventory Report 11-7-09

There is a new trend developing and that is the NTS/Foreclosed (F) home ratio keeps falling but overall in East Bellevue and West Bellevue the distressed inventory keeps rising. Only in South Bellevue did the NTS/F ratiio fall and the inventory go down. As we discussed before a falling NTS/F ratio is a good thing because there are fewer distressed homes entering the system via short sale that feed the bank owned homes which is what comes out of the backside of the process. However to have a falling NTS/F ratio while the inventory increases overall is not a sustainable trend it has to break one way or the other. If the ratios start crawling back up while inventories keep climbing that will keep downward pressure on pricing and show a longer term downward trend. Overall distressed inventories going up despite the NTS/F ratio going down will put downward pressure on pricing but in that scenario it clears out the bank owned inventory and eventually the overall number of distrssed propeorties has to fall leading to firmer pricing.

This week in East Bellevue the overall distressed inventory is at its highest level since the August 15th report. At that time there was 91 overall distressed homes, like this week, however at the August 15th report 20 homes were foreclosed while 71 had notices of trustee sale. This week there is 43 foreclosed homes and 48 NTS homes. West Bellevue shows this trend even more. This week they saw their overall inventory of distressed property jump by three homes to 66 but their NTS/F ratio actually took a dive to .83. If this ratio keeps falling then logically it should mean an overall coming reduction of distrssed inventory. But there is nothing logical about our economy or market. We could be in this weird world where we are in a “trading range” of distressed inventory and the NTS/F ratio will oscillate. The next weird trend to surface might be seeing inventories fall and the NTS/F ratio climb which would mean we are stuck in this “trading range”. I think the above little antidote on our local real estate market is more symbolic of the overall economy where you have one person making a perfectly cogent argument why the sky is falling and another person can make a perfectlly good argument why the worst is over and happy days will be here agian next spring all off of the same data.

This is very confusing and makes my head hurt. However it does look like the buying window is opening a little wider and like last year where your best buys where Q4 and Q1 it looks like the same pattern is developing just a little milder cycle. So there you have it the upshot of the report is buy a home so I can make a commission.

Click on the link for the spreadsheet. Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-7-09

Tags: Distressed, Distressed Inventory, Foreclosed, Notice of Trustte sale, NTS/F, report
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Weekly Scorecard 11-2-09

Well I thought the inventory would keep gradually building but shows what happens when I try to make a prediction. This week we saw a slight drop to 243 homes so it dipped back under 250 homes. Traditionally a low number for East Bellevue. There was the largest number of sales yet in a single week with 15 closed homes. Two of which were waterfronts. Excluding these homes the average per sq. ft. sales price was $226 per sq. ft. lower then in the past weeks number but very close to the traditional East Bellevue average per sq. ft. price of $220. The average home sale price was $554,808 a somewhat higher average for East Bellevue which is usually around $475,000. There was only one short sale in this week’s sold homes and no bank owned homes. Five homes went pending this week and the average per sq. ft. sales price was $225. However the average listing price was $650,550 very high for East Bellevue. Just as a note the pending homes’ average initial list price was for the sold pendings was $847,990. Looks like if the sellers wanted a sale they had to come down quite a bit on their asking prices.

Again things look stable. The per sq. ft. average sales price was in the usual $220 per sq. ft. range the inventory does not appear to be growing excessively. It is obvious the buyer will buy if the pricing is right.

Tags: avergae price per sq. ft., inventory, pending, Scorecard, sold, Weekly
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Distressed Inventory Report 10-31-09

The trend continues. The ratio of Notices of Trustee sale (NTS) to foreclosed homes continues to decline in all areas. The interesting market is East Bellevue where the NTS/Foreclosed ratio is down to its lowest level at 1.25 however overall the number of total distressed homes is up to 88 from a bottom of 73. There are now 39 foreclosed homes in East Bellevue this is the highest number since the report began. I think we can see the reason for this in the MLS numbers for East Bellevue. The number of listed foreclosed homes was only showing 2 listed homes when the banks in the area owned almost 30 homes. Well this week the listed foreclosed inventory took a big jump to 9 homes. Looks like some of this inventory is finally being brought to the market.

It looks like a buying window is starting to form. Increasing amounts of listed foreclosed inventory is coming to the market when sales volume slow seasonally and also in this market cycle after a good run of volume that appeared to use some of the pent up demand from buyers who were looking for lower prices. Now in addition to the seasonal slow down there needs to be a cooling off period while new demand builds again. If the NTS/foreclosed ratios keep declining then it means that in the spring there will be less overall distressed inventory which will support pricing in the market but in the near term in our slowest period there will be a number of bank owned homes coming to the market. In the next month there will be some more downward pressure on priceas as these bank sellers will have pressure to off load these homes and more will keep coming on. When the lenders list these homes they want them sold. Most only give 60 day listings and to some extent they are their own worst enemy on their inability to manage the sale of these homes through call centers. They think abusing buyers is a good marketing technique. Once you see the listed inventory spike that will be the time to make a move. If the bank owned inventory spikes and the NTS inventory keeps dwindling then that will clear the deck for the spring market. At that time some of our local sellers can enter the market and maybe have some price support. However for right now keep an eye on the listed bank owned inventory and let the out of town servicers give our local buyers an opportunity at a good deal.

Here is the link to the spreadsheet: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-31-09

Tags: bank owned, Distressed Inventory, Foreclosed, Notice of trusteee sale, report, Weekly
Discussion: 1 Comment

Weekly Scorecard 10-26-09

It appears the overall inventory is marching back up. It is now 252 homes. Three weeks ago it bottomed at a little over 230 homes. However this is not a lot of homes for this market which can run over 300 homes but it looks like as our sales volume decreases due to increasing prices and seaonality factors that the inventory is starting to creep back up. Will probably keep heading higher until Q1 next year.

Closed sales this week were 7 homes. Not bad. The week previous had 10 sales but it appears overall sales volumes are slowing down a bit. Average per sq. ft. prices are drifting back to the $220 per sq. ft. and are down from last week’s $235 to $229 this week and overall the average home sale was price was back down to under $500K at $491,514 very typical numbers for East Bellevue. There appeared to be no bank owned or short sale homes in this batch of sales.

Like last week the pending sales volume was low at only 3 homes. The average per sq. ft. price was $219 per sq. ft. There was one short sale in this batch of homes. This is a home that had been pending forever; a short sale new construction home so that one is a little suspect. However the important part is not the specific homes but the overall trend line. If you remember in June we saw the market bounce happen when pending sales vome and per sq. ft. prices were higher than the previous week. Now we see a new trend of lower pending sales volume and per sq. ft. pending prices. Looks like we have had a good little bounce and we will level back out at our traditional numbers.

As I said last week I think we are in a “trading” range where volumes and prices will decline until they get at or under $220 per sq. ft. and then we will probably see sales volumes and sales pick up and move us over the $200 per sq. ft. number. Will probably keep trading around this number until we start seeing real growth in the overall economy.

Tags: avergae price per sq. ft., sales, Scorecard, Weekly
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