Distressed Inventory Report 10-3-09
Same thing different week. The number of homes that could be called distressed inventory remained the same as last week at 73. A couple of differences though the number of new homes that were new inventory, either foreclosed or Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS), were down from 10 to 4. Last week the news was the number of new homes either foreclosed or NTS had a big jump to 10 new homes but the overall inventory was down due to a reduction of the homes that were NTS. These homes either cured their payments in arrears or were short sales that might have actually closed. This week it appears the overall sales activity was very low also.
The popular theory presently is that the number of NTS and foreclosures would rise as people who drained their resources trying to hang on eventually would have to throw in the towel. That may have been the case but the recent last three months of sales might have kept this inventory in check. The economy is not creating many jobs but the unemployment rate in the Seattle appears to have stabilized around 8%. If unemployment remains stable then at some point in time these personal situations will get resolved. The future looks dismal though for any growth. The main political initiatives nationally are focusing on health care and green house emissions. The present approaches to both of these issues appear to have employers shouldering most of the cost for these programs so there will be even more incentives to “downsize” and put even more pressure to cut cost to offset these new expenses. In addition the direct subsidies for the economy provided by the Federal Reserve are being scaled back. This has all the looks of a “muddle”.
While I avoid making predictions I suspect we will see decreased sales volumes in East Bellevue but also a gradual reduction in inventories as sellers who have the option take their ball and go home as the see very little upward pressure on pricing. Fortunately given the mature demographics and overall conservative nature of the East Bellevue home owner this is the vast majority of the ownership profile. East Bellevue is a mature neighborhood in a great location. Neighborhoods like West Bellevue experienced a bunch of near do wells that were looking for the prestige of West Bellevue and could get in the neighborhood because of cheap money. As an example in West Bellevue in the 98004 zip code there are 21 foreclosed homes. Compare this to the 98005 zip code with roughly the same population you have only 7 homes and in all three zip codes 98005, 98007 and 98008 there are only 27 foreclosed homes. This combination of mature ownership, affordable pricing and excellent location to jobs, schools and services also means that the foreclosed and short sale homes have a much better chance of selling. I will talk more in the coming weeks about these demographics and overall neighborhood trends. Also I am considering expanding the “Distressed Inventory Report” to include the 98004 and 98006 zip codes if there is any interest in that please let me know.
Click on the link for the spreadsheet. East Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-3-09