Bellevue Real Estate » closed sales

Weekly Scorecard 4-11-11

George Thurtle — Sat, 16 Apr 2011 16:01:37 +0000

Finally a SMALL uptick in inventory however the sales continue to march along. Both the closed sales and the pending sales. There is one very important trend developing in the numbers. The average per sq. ft. price of the pending sales is significantly higher than sales of the closed prices. This trend is now clearly established. The reason this is significant is that it indicates a market that has bottomed and actually is starting some mild appreciation. In some cases the spreads are pretty big. South Bellevue which has a lot homes and can have more reliable averages, shows this week an average pending for sale per sq. ft. price of $227.33 per sq. ft. and an average sold per sq. ft. price of $210.98. The week before it was $257.12 and $197.19 respectively. as an example this time of year two years ago in 2009 the numbers would have been reversed with the pending per sq. ft. sale prices lower than the closed home sale prices. That trend was a reliable indicator of the market’s downward trend then. The question now is how much of a bounce or is this a blip in the downward trend. I don’t think so. The local economy is doing too good. Buyers are flowing in from the major tech players Microsoft, Google and Amazon and formed the floor for our local market. Many of the new buyers are VERY frustrated seeing the overall poor selection of inventory and are really surprised when they see a home come that is a half decent come on the market and then have three or four offers on it. That is not what the national perception is when they enter the market locally. The question though is no matter how good our local economy is there is some very heavy anchors to drag that any market needs to carry with it to make a climb and that is the overwhelming excess debt both public and private that really keeps a lid on things and also the lack of overall job formation. Looks like locally this year will be the tug of war between a glowing local economy and a miserable national economy.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-11-11

Weekly Scorecard 4-4-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 01:40:33 +0000

The inventories have ticked up by a hair but the big story this week is the closed sales. West Bellevue had 18 alone. This is a record for an area which does only two to three. Many of those sales looked to be potential tear downs but that number is very high for any market. In Bellevue market area this week there was 46 closed sales in total. I believe this number is not sustainable but given the reduced inventories and these sales volumes you see why there has been an uptick values as noted on the Altos graphs. However I don’t see prices rising high enough to bring more new construction or some of the better inventory to the market. It appears that many of these sales were pending short sales that finally came together. some of these sales were in progress for six months or more and I think some of the banks wised up and decided to move on. The other notable aspect of the sales when viewing them individually was the number of the sales that the home was on the market three days or less. It was evident that when a very nice new home came on the market that was competitively priced it sold quickly and in some situations had multiple offers. In the monthly graphs that are out you can see the lines of the decreasing inventories and increasing sales. What I am seeing at the street level is that the better inventory has gotten picked off and what is remaining is stale or over priced and when a new home comes on that is very nice it looks like there are now a number of buyers willing to pounce on it quickly.

The spreadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 4-4-11

Weekly Scorecard 9-27-10

George Thurtle — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 02:04:05 +0000

Still getting caught up. The same trends as the last few weeks continue; pretty good numbers for the clsoed sales but weaker numbers for the pending sales. The big news though is that in West Bellevue we are seeing some big numbers. Another large water front closed along with two more homes either side of $3,000,000 these were not distressed sales sales. No short sales or banked owned properties. It appears that better properties in good condition that have specialty appeal are strting to move. If someone wants a nice home or special piece of property they are going to have to pay for it. As we have discussed previously a lot of the new construction and other upper end distressed property was cleaned out last year. Now if you have money and want a nice piece of property in many cases buyers are now having to deal with sellers that may be as strong financially as they are.

Here is the spreadsheet: Weekly scorecard 9-27-10

Weekly Scorecard 8-9-10

George Thurtle — Wed, 11 Aug 2010 14:40:46 +0000

Things appear to be settling down. Inventories are peaking and the sales are lower after the expiration of the tax credit. Basically over the last few months inventory have risen and the sales volume has fallen. If you take a look at the monthly statistics this trend is very noticeable on the graphs. In looking at the spreadsheet attached you will see that the pending sales and closed sales are starting to come in line more with closed sales and pending sales roughly beginning to correspond. In my opinion this is an indication of the underlying market after the tax credit. In general lower volumes as the market seeks to be replenished with new buyers.

The pricing appears stable with no real clear trend either up or down. The indication here is if you are a seller you know where the price needs to be to sell and overall there are fewer buyers as indicated by the closed and pending sales. In addition in looking at the sales it is very evident the homes that are in condition or if older remodeled with new appliances and baths are the onesselling quickly. Some of the FNMA bank homes have had to take steep discounts to under $300,000. That has not been seen for a long time.

The spreqadsheet is here: Weekly scorecard 8-9-10