Distressed Inventory Report 1-1-11

By George Thurtle

Happy New Year. The report is attached below but a gradual decrese in inventory but not much to read into that. Really will not have a trend established until at least the end of January. However there is now a full year’s worth of data. The year started out in week one of 2010 with a total of 217 homes which were either foreclsoed or had a Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS). During the year that number swelled to  a high 422 homes in August 7, 2010 report and then declined to 254 homes at close of 2010. The interest thing about the peak is that the graph would show the 422 homes as clear peak with a pretty constant slopu up and down. There was not the ususal topping where you have a peak number that hangs high and varies.

As I discussed previously 2010 was to be the year of the “hanger’s on”. These are people who thought the market might pick up and bail them out or that potentially there job or business prospects would improve as has happened in more robust recoveries. These prople drained their resoruces and threw in the towel in 2010 and I think we are pretty much through that cycle. This trend produced a lot of higher end homes in good condition to select from. At the street level I am seeing this inventory depleted substantially and I think this cycle has run its course.

2011 will be the year we see the all of those failed loan modifications not working out and those homes will be headed to foreclosure. Also later in the year the next source of foreclosures will be the lower end homes where “tax credit” buyers got in over their head. This will be the story the press will pick up on is home purchased in 2009 with the artificial stimulus will come back to bite us without a substantially improved domestic economy. However most of this activity will be at the lower end. The bottom line is for Bellevue is that overall you will see much less distressed invtory over $1,000,000 and the bulk of it will be $500,000 and under. If you are looking for a cheap condo in Bellevue in a converted building you will have a lot of inventory to select from.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 1-1-11

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