Distressed Inventory Report 9-11-10
It does appear that the Distressed Inventory is peaking. Some of you who follow this blog know I was concerned the Distressed Inventory would rise after the vacation season due to the fact the servicers would be more aggressive filing foreclosures. For now this does not seem to be the case. The other interesting trend is the churning for the Notice of Trustee Sales (NTS). The numbers are holding steady but a review of the inventory shows a high level of inventory being removed and new inventory being replace. However this week the NTS inventory took it lowest climb in four months. If this trend continues the next couple of weeks then it would appear for now the Distressed Inventory is stabilizing.
The news cycle is turning very negative regarding residential housing. In addition I am seeing a lot of price cutting right now as the news cycle has driven some of the buyers out of the market as evidenced by the fall in pending sales. The counter trend is that inventories of general market homes and distressed inventory appears to be peaking. As we have discussed before buying opportunities generally occur on the backside of the inventory decline until the news cycle catches up. The combination of the negative news cycle with declining inventories may provide some good buying opportunities in the next couple of months. However if you are a buyer and play this cycle too aggresively you could see a market shift happen fairly wuickly. This would be due to a combination of a reduction of inventory with a little bit of good nees can make things turn around pretty quick. Not a large swing but sellers would be more bold. Now they appear to be willing to capitulate a little more. Particularly those short sale sellers who need to get an offer in to avoid foreclosure.
The Spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 9-11-10