Bellevue Real Estate » short sales

Distressed Inventory Report 3-26-11

George Thurtle — Mon, 04 Apr 2011 14:39:09 +0000

It looks like the numbers are peaking. Down slightly this week. Again, I can’t emphasize this enough, the new inventory coming on is mostly junk. If you want a great deal on a fixer in Lake Hills then you have bank inventory to look at but if you want a nicer newer home then you are out of luck. Your best shot at that type of home is a short sale. The lack of better bank inventory and reduced inventory overall has caused a little bump in values if you look at the weekly Altos graphs. The local economy is good and combined with reduced inventories overall and fewer distressed sellers it looks like a solid bottom is forming until the government screws something up again.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 3-26-11

Distressed Inventory Report 2-12-11

George Thurtle — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 16:59:40 +0000

The numbers are still on the rise. In looking at the new inventory coming on there are more houses this week. Previously it was lower end condos. The number of listed short sales in South Bellevue took a jump this week and overall some of the new bank inventory is making it into the MLS. However the pricing on the new bank inventory seems pretty aggresive. If you have the time, patience and stand a lot of frustration your best opportunity still appears to be aged short sales.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-12-11

Distressed Inventory Report 2-5-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 01:45:13 +0000

The numbers are finally climbing like they usually do this time of year. The Notice of Trustee (NTS) sales are up this week and appear not to be dropping or moving around like they have in the last few weeks. Compared to last year there were 244 distressed homes at this time of year but this year there are 290 homes. We are down from the peak of last year of 422 homes but startying from the higher base but the rate of increase is somewhat slower. The next four to six weeks I think will give some indications.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 2-5-11

Distressed Inventory Report 1-29-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 02:27:23 +0000

Well it is finally happening the amount of distressed inventory is starting to increase but a slower rate than last year if look at spreadsheet. I thought it would have started ticking up sooner. Wgat you can’t see is what price ranges the distressed inventory is coming from and it is either very high or very low. Hardly any mid-range stuff. The amount of converted condos in Bellevue coming to market is remarkable. There are also some extremely high end homes. Most of the distressed new construction is sold so you won’t be seeing much of that except for a couplf of homes in East Bellevue.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 1-29-11

Distressed Inventory Report 1-8-11

George Thurtle — Sun, 16 Jan 2011 02:04:33 +0000

The numbers have started back up. West bellevue had a very large unexplained spike of foreclosed homes withe a jump from 15 to 28 in one week. In addition there was not new offsetting inventory to account for the spike. usually when a spike like this occurs there is a new construction project which has had some condominium units taken back by the bank. Also in Bellevue two new bank owned waterfront homes have come on the market. On eis over $5,000,000 located on Evergreen Point Rd. Will be interesting to see how quick it sells.

The amount of foreclosed inventory usually starts increasing on a seasonal basis this time of year. The big issue in the next month will be how much and how quick. There is a lot of speculation the numbers were down as the banks clean up their foreclosure practices and that now that issue is behind them and there is a pipeline of back up homes to foreclose on and bring to market. The next month will tell.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 1-8-11

Distressed Inventory Report 12-18-10

George Thurtle — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:59:08 +0000

I am finally getting caught up on my posts. The storyu here is the decline in distrssed inventories bot listed and unlisted. The listed inventories experinced a surge of sales this last week before Christmas. It will be interesting to see what activity the first of the year brings. Generally foreclosure activity at the larger institutions slows down this time of year and picks up in the last half of January. My gut feel is that it will pick it up it will be at lower levels than last year and that amount of distressed inventory in the overall market will see further declines with bigger drops in the last half of 2011. In the upper end there is a couple of new opportunities in West Bellevue. There is a $1,600,000 former builder’s home in Beaux Arts for $1,600,000 owned by Wells Fargo and also another one owned by East West Bank in came on for $1,800,000. Both of these are newer homes in good West Bellevue locations. It has been hard to find this type of inventory for the last six months. If anyone has any interest please le tme know.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 12-18-10

Distressed Inventory Report 11-6-10

George Thurtle — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 17:27:37 +0000

It is evident there was a back log due to the foreclosure moratorium by the major lenders. However this week the nes is that the banks are steeping up the rate of actual foreclosures. Last week the Notice of Trustee sales (NTS) saw a big spike in their numbers, however this week the it is the foreclosures themselves which are increasing. There is still a number of homes going NTS but nat as many as last week. Also there appears to be a lot od churning with at loeast 3 or 4 homes that were NTS being removed and then being replaced. Basically you need almost 5 or 6 new homes going NTS to offset the market and foreclosure activity. Most of the bank owned propoerties however are of a realtively low grade mainly condos and entry level housing. There are some nice newer ones in the 98005 zip code in the Glendale area and some real expensive ones in West Bellevue but that is about it. Aged short sales seem to be presenting the most opportunity right now. Also if any one has any interest I will be listing a new construction and unfinished home in the Kel;sey Glen area but there is no reason an offer cannot be submitted now.

The swpreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 11-6-10

Distressed Inventory Report 10-30-10

George Thurtle — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 21:19:01 +0000

Well it looks like the foreclsoures are starting again after a lull. As you have read in the news the major lenders stopped processing foreclosures due to documentation difficulties. In the last weeks we were seeing the notices of trustee sales declining and overall it appeared distressed inventory was selling off and being reduced. However this week there is a big jump in the number of homes that have gone NTS (notice of trustee sale). The difficult part to reconcile though is the jump in numbers for the homes going NTS is not matching up with the previous weeks. As an example in the 98004 zip code the number of homes going NTS went from 29 to 60 in one week but it only showed 3 new notices of trustee sales being filed. There could be a couple of reasons for this, the first is that some notices may have been refiled to insure they complied with state law. This would mean some of the servicers processing foreclosure s are trying to clean up their act. The other is that there might have been a large project such as a condo project where the lender was foreclosing on individual units owned by one developer. I will look at the actual NTS filings a little more and see if I can get this figured out. However in the next coup0le of weeks let’s see if these new NTS being filed is clearing out a back log or if we are on an upward spike in new foreclosures.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-30-10

Distressed Inventory Report 10-23-10

George Thurtle — Sat, 23 Oct 2010 18:28:54 +0000

The amount of Distressed Inventory keeps declining. The Notice of Trustee sales are seeing some very large week to week reductions. The issue is if this decline is the result of underlying market fundamentals or is because the banks have stopped processing foreclosures. First of all not thay many banks stopped processing and most of them have started processing foreclosures again including Bank of America. Antidotally I am seeing a lot of short sales closing but not a lot of replacement inventory. Many short sale listings that were “aged” have either gone to foreclosure or many of them recently have been sold. In addition it appears that the economy has stabilized enough that the tail end of the distressd inventory from people hanging on is getting worked through the system. Ten percent unemployment will keep new homes coming into the system but the wave of distressed inventory generated by the economy locking up in the fall of 2008 seems to be dissapating on the beach now.

The only area with any increase at all, and this was very mild, was West Bellevue. some areas such as East Bellevue are down almost 60% from their peak of total distressed inventory. Also if you look at the MLS inventory short sales are not balloning which would be the logical conclusion if the lenders stopped foreclosing. The short sale process does not require a foreclosure and the lender does not have to prove they have the rights to the note and deed of trust as in a foreclosure, all they have to do is release their interest. If you are looking for distressed inventory there is less to select from and the window of opportunity may be closing if more buyers start entering the market next spring. I know there is a theory that another foreclosure wave is coming with the major ARM resets happening in 2011 and 2012 but I am not seeing it here locally. In addition I am seeing banks respond and process short sales in a much more timely manner. Let’s see what the trends are in the next couple of weeks.

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-23-10

Distressed Inventory Report 10-2-10

George Thurtle — Thu, 07 Oct 2010 15:01:24 +0000

The drop in distressed inventory is accelerating. We are seeing areas with very large week to week decreases in their NTS inventory (Notice of Trustee Sale). In the weeks prior when the inventory was peaking there was a trend in which there would be a large number of new NTS but the overall inventory of NTS would remain stable. It appears now that the churning at the bottom with short sales and maybe some homes going to foreclosure is still happening but no replacement inventory is coming to the market.

The demand overall in the market is not great but most of the buyers are focusing on the distressed inventory and that segement of the market has dwindling inventory and well priced short sale homes are receiving multiple offers. The best opportunity now is “aged” short sales where the sellers need to get something to present to the lender in order to hold off foreclosure. However avoid being too aggressive and setting the stage for another buyer:

The spreadsheet is here: Bellevue Foreclosure Report 10-2-10